Tesla Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Trade Setups for Dec 12–19 Expirations

• TSLA trades at $444.34, down 2.34% from previous close, but MACD (3.78) and RSI (77.04) hint at overbought momentum.
• Call open interest dominates at $490, $470, and $500 strikes for Dec 12, while next Friday’s $960 call (OI: 43,498) shows extreme bullish positioning.
• Morgan Stanley’s $425 price target clashes with options data, creating a high-stakes setup for short-term traders.

The stock’s technicals and options flow tell a story of tension: TSLA is sitting on a short-term bullish Kline pattern but faces a critical test at its 30D support ($429.73). Meanwhile, options market sentiment is skewed sharply to the upside, with call open interest outpacing puts by 17% (0.85 ratio). This isn’t just noise—it’s a signal that big money is pricing in a breakout above $450, even as fundamentals remain mixed.Bullish Options Clusters and Block Trade Signals

Let’s start with the numbers: TSLA’s options chain is loaded with call open interest at $490 (OI: 29,730) and $500 (OI: 16,330) for Dec 12, and the next Friday’s $960 call (OI: 43,498) is a jaw-dropper. These strikes suggest institutional players are hedging or speculating on a sharp rally, possibly tied to the robotaxi hype cycle. The put side isn’t ignored—$400 puts (OI: 8,775) and $225 puts (OI: 23,880) for next Friday act as downside cushions, but they’re dwarfed by the call frenzy.

Block trades add intrigue. The $3.8M block of TSLA20250919C380 calls (1,200 contracts) and $1.9M in TSLA20251003P415 puts (450 contracts) hint at strategic positioning for past expirations. While those dates are now expired, they underscore a pattern: big players have been layering in bullish bets for months, even as the stock dipped. The takeaway? Volatility isn’t fading—it’s intensifying.

News vs. Options: A Clash of Narratives

Morgan Stanley’s downgrade to Equal Weight ($425 target) and warnings about “choppy” 2026 trading seem at odds with the options frenzy. But here’s the twist: the same analysts who cut the rating also raised the target from $410 to $425, acknowledging Tesla’s AI and robotics potential. This duality is reflected in the market—investors are pricing in the possibility of a $500+ rally (via calls) while hedging against a $400 drop (via puts). The key is timing: if TSLA breaks above its intraday high of $449.74, the $490–$500 calls could ignite. If it fails to hold above $429.73 support, the $400–$425 puts might become critical.

Actionable Trade Setups

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy TSLA20251219C500 calls (strike: $500, exp: Dec 19) if TSLA closes above $449.74 today. The $500 strike is a sweet spot—it’s far enough out to offer leverage but still within reach if the stock gaps up on FSD news.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy TSLA20251219P400 puts (strike: $400, exp: Dec 19) if the stock dips below $431.27 (30D resistance). This acts as insurance against a short-term selloff.

For stock traders:

• Entry: Consider buying TSLA near $429.73 (30D support) if it holds. A close above $449.74 would validate the bullish case, with a price target of $460–$470.
• Stop-Loss: Exit if TSLA falls below $423.07 (Bollinger Middle Band) to avoid a deeper pullback.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s story isn’t just about numbers—it’s about narrative. The options market is pricing in a “moonshot” scenario (robotaxi, Optimus) while fundamentals (like EV competition and valuation concerns) drag the stock lower. This creates a volatile sweet spot: traders who buy the dip at support or ride the breakout above $450 could reap outsized gains. But patience is key. The next 72 hours will test whether TSLA can hold its short-term bullish structure—or if the bears will force a retest of the 200D support ($315.53). Either way, the options flow suggests this isn’t the end of the road for bulls.