Tesla’s Options Signal a Bullish Battle at $440: How Traders Can Position for AI-Driven Rebound

• TSLA opens at $457.78 but plunges to $440.90 intraday, -1.5% from previous close
• Put/Call OI ratio at 0.81 suggests bullish bias, but $440 put OI (16,617) hints at near-term risk
• Q4 delivery slump confirmed, but AI/robotaxi optimism fuels long-term call buying at $480–$500

Here’s the deal: Tesla’s stock is caught in a tug-of-war. Short-term bearish momentum clashes with long-term AI-driven optimism. The options market isn’t just reacting to today’s price swing—it’s betting on a future where robotaxis could redefine the company’s value. Let’s break it down.

The Options Imbalance: Calls at $480, Puts at $440

Take a look at the OTM options: Calls at $480 ($OI: 31,295) and $500 ($OI: 21,000) dominate this Friday’s expirations. That’s not accidental. Traders are pricing in a potential rebound to $480+ if AI hype translates to real earnings. But don’t ignore the puts: The $440 strike ($OI: 16,617) is a magnet for hedgers. Why? It lines up with Tesla’s 30D support zone (428.63–430.61). If the stock breaks below $440, that support could crumble, triggering a deeper sell-off.

Block trades add intrigue. A massive 200-lot sale of TSLA20260618P410 (June 2026 exp) suggests someone’s hedging a long-term bet. Meanwhile, the TSLA20260116P410 (Jan 16 exp) block trade hints at near-term bearish positioning. The message? Short-term pain is expected, but long-term believers are locking in protection.

News vs. Options: Delivery Slump Fuels Contradictions

Tesla’s Q4 delivery numbers are brutal: -16% YoY, missing estimates by 10k+ units. The U.S. tax credit expiration and BYD’s dominance in China are real threats. Yet the stock’s premarket pop (1.9%) and call buying at $500+ suggest investors aren’t buying the bear case. Why? Because the news also mentions robotaxi timelines and AI partnerships. Analysts like Dan Ives are calling Tesla a "top AI play."

Here’s the twist: The market is pricing in both outcomes. The puts at $440 and $250 ($OI: 28,716) reflect fear of a near-term selloff. But the calls at $480–$500 show confidence that AI-driven revenue streams could offset EV delivery declines. It’s a classic case of "sell the news, buy the vision."

Actionable Trades: Calls for Rebound, Puts for Protection

For options: Buy the TSLA20260109C472.5 (next Friday’s $472.5 call, OI: 9,207). If Tesla holds above $440, this strike could catch a rebound to $470+. Alternatively, buy the TSLA20260109P440 (next Friday’s $440 put, OI: 16,617) to hedge against a breakdown below key support.

For stock: Consider entry near $428.63 (30D support) if Tesla bounces off the lower Bollinger Band ($431.18). Target $447.96 (30D MA) as a short-term goal, with a hard stop at $425.55 (200D support). The 200D MA is a psychological level—break it, and the bear case gets a lot louder.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Short-Term Risks with AI-Driven Optimism

Tesla’s story isn’t just about cars anymore. It’s about AI, robotaxis, and a future where software revenue outpaces hardware. The options market is pricing in a volatile path to get there. Traders who can stomach the near-term noise—while betting on the long-term AI narrative—might find themselves in a strong position. But don’t ignore the puts at $250+; they’re a reminder that this isn’t a one-way bet. Stay nimble, and keep an eye on those Bollinger Bands. If Tesla breaks out above $498.23, the bearish narrative could flip overnight.