Tesla’s Options Show Bullish Skew at $400–$410: Here’s How to Play the AI & Robot-Driven Recovery

• Tesla is trading at $385.03, up 1.1% and well above the intraday low of $376.31.
• Options sentiment shows a sharp skew toward OTM calls, especially around the $400–$410 range.
• The RSI is at 44.36, hinting at a potential rebound from oversold territory.
• Block trades suggest big players are positioning for a near-term reversal or long-term AI-driven play.

Here’s the story: Tesla’s options market is quietly telling us something important. Despite the recent sell-off and bearish technical indicators like the MACD and RSI pointing to oversold territory, the call options are showing a strong bullish bias. And with news about Optimus Gen 2, FSD expansion, and a new AI CTO from Microsoft, we’re seeing signs that the stock might be setting up for a meaningful rebound.

Call Buyers Are Cheering at $400–$410—But Put Open Interest Is a Warning Bell

Let’s start with the options. On this Friday’s options chain, the top OTM call strikes are all around the $400–$410 range. The $400 call has the highest open interest at 19,034 contracts, followed by $405 (15,322) and $410 (3,670 on next Friday’s chain). That’s not random. It shows that a lot of traders are either expecting a short-term pop above $400 or are hedging against a longer-term breakout.

On the put side, the most notable is the $370 put with 9,879 open interest—still relatively low compared to the call side. That’s a red flag. A healthy market usually has a balanced put/call ratio. But here, the put/open interest ratio is 0.738, meaning calls are outpacing puts. That suggests the crowd is more bullish than bearish, at least for the near term.

And then there are the block trades. We see big puts and calls being traded, like the TSLA20260918P380 (unknown put, $224,800 notional) and the TSLA20260618C415 (sell call, $1,070,000 notional). That’s not noise. It’s positioning. Someone is either hedging a big long position or getting ready for a breakout—either way, we should be watching these levels closely.

New News Is Tipping the Scales—And It’s Mostly Bullish

Tesla’s Optimus Gen 2 robot, FSD expansion into Canada and Germany, and the NeuralMind acquisition are all pointing in one direction: AI-driven value. That’s the kind of news that investors like. Combine that with a new CTO, a stock repurchase plan, and a new Gigafactory in India, and you’ve got a company that’s not just surviving—it’s scaling.

But here’s the catch. Goldman Sachs just downgraded Tesla to Underperform. That might be the kind of event that scares short-term traders—but if you’re a longer-term thinker, this is a buying opportunity. The market is pricing in uncertainty, but the fundamentals are still strong. And with the SEC investigation still a wildcard, volatility is likely to remain high.

Here’s What You Can Do Right Now—Stock and Options

Let’s get practical. If you’re bullish on Tesla’s AI and robot roadmap, here are two solid ways to play it:

• Option Play: Buy the TSLA20260403C400 (next Friday’s chain) at a small debit. Why this one? Because it’s the second most liquid call on the next Friday’s chain, and the $400 strike is the most watched level among OI data. If Tesla breaks above $397.52 (middle Bollinger Band), this could be a fast and clean way to capture upside without too much premium decay.

• Stock Play: Consider entry near $390–$392.50 if the stock holds above the 200D MA of $394.63 and shows a bullish reversal on the MACD. A breakout above the 30D support/resistance at $398.11 would be confirmation. If you’re a longer-term investor, the stock buyback and Gigafactory expansion give you more time to ride the trend.

Volatility on the Horizon: The AI Roadmap Is Just Beginning

Tesla is at a crossroads. On one hand, the AI and robotics announcements are creating long-term value. On the other, the stock is still dealing with short-term pain—SEC scrutiny, bearish indicators, and a downgrade from Goldman. But the options market is showing that the crowd is leaning bullish, and the recent block trades suggest big players are positioning for a rebound.

So, what does that mean for us? It means now could be a good time to go with the flow. The AI revolution is not over. And with Tesla’s stock trading near key support levels, the next move could be a big one—up or down. Either way, we’re better off watching the $400 level like a hawk.