Tesla’s Options Show Bullish Bias at $480 Calls, But $190 Puts Signal Extreme Fear – Here’s How to Play the Volatility

• TSLA opens 2026 with a 1.9% drop to $441.20, breaking below its 30D moving average of $447.96.
• Options market shows 0.81 put/call open interest ratio, with $480 calls (OI: 31,295) and $190 puts (OI: 42,603) as top contenders.
• Block trades reveal a $3.8M call block (TSLA20250919C380) and a $1.9M put block (TSLA20260116P410) hinting at strategic positioning.

Here’s the takeaway: Tesla’s options market is torn between bullish conviction at $480 calls and extreme downside fear at $190 puts. The stock’s technicals—trapped in a bearish short-term trend but clinging to a long-term bullish setup—suggest a volatile week ahead. Let’s break it down.

The Options Imbalance: Bulls Target $480, Bears Hedge at $190

The options chain tells a story of conflicting narratives. Call open interest peaks at $480 (31,295 contracts) and $500 (21,000), while puts dominate at $190 (42,603) and $250 (23,829). This isn’t just noise—it’s a battle between bulls eyeing a breakout above the Bollinger Upper Band ($498.23) and bears hedging against a catastrophic drop.

The $190 puts, though extreme, suggest some investors are bracing for a 50%+ collapse—a scenario that feels disconnected from Tesla’s recent $25.5B revenue report and $5B buyback. Meanwhile, the $480 calls align with the 30D moving average and RSI neutrality (49.36), hinting at a potential rebound.

Block trades add intrigue. The TSLA20260116P410 put (expiring next Friday) and TSLA20250919C380 call (expiring Sept 2025) suggest institutional players are hedging long-term positions or capitalizing on near-term volatility.

News Flow: Can Optimism Outweigh the Risks?

Tesla’s Q4 beat and Robotaxi launch are tailwinds, but the EU fine ($450M), Cybertruck sales miss, and Autopilot recall create headwinds. The market is pricing in the good news—$441.20 is still 24% above the 200D MA—but the bad news could trigger a reevaluation.

Investor sentiment is split. Retail traders might be drawn to the $5B buyback and Goldman’s $350 price target, while bears cite the 12% short-interest surge and regulatory risks. The key question: Will the stock hold above its 200D support range ($425.56–$430.92), or will the $190 puts signal a deeper selloff?

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For options traders, the $480 call (TSLA20260102C480) is a high-conviction play if the stock breaks above $458.33 (intraday high). A cheaper alternative: the $472.5 call (TSLA20260109C472.5) for next Friday, which aligns with the 30D MA.

On the downside, a put spread using $440 (TSLA20260102P440) and $430 (TSLA20260109P430) could hedge against a drop to the 200D support. For stock traders, consider entries near $435 (intraday low) with a target at $464.70 (middle Bollinger Band) if support holds.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s week is a tightrope walk between optimism and caution. The options market is pricing in a 10–15% move either way, and the news flow could tip the scales. If the stock holds above $435, the $480 calls gain traction. If it breaks below $425.56, the $190 puts might not be the end. Either way, this is a week to watch—and trade—with discipline.

One thing’s clear: Tesla isn’t done making headlines. The question is whether the market will treat this as a buying opportunity or a warning shot.