Tesla’s Options Imbalance and Whale Moves Signal Risk-On Play: Target $490 Calls as Volatility Nears Expiry

• Put/Call OI ratio at 0.81 favors calls, with heavy call interest at $500 and $490 strikes.
• Block trades show large put sales ($410 Jan 16 put) and call buys ($380 Sep 19 call), hinting at hedging or bullish bets.
• News-driven dips (supply cuts, weaker deliveries) clash with options data suggesting short-term bullish bets.

The options market is sending a mixed but actionable signal: traders are loading up on out-of-the-money calls near $500 while puts at extreme strikes ($190) hint at panic. Combine this with Tesla’s price hovering near its 30-day high of $456.55, and it’s clear—the stock shows upside potential in the short term but faces headwinds from recent news.

The Bull Case in the Options Room: Calls at $500 and $490 Dominate

Let’s start with the numbers. Open interest in OTM calls peaks at $500 (23,424 contracts) and $490 (16,861), while puts max out at $190 (42,595 OI)—a strike so far below the current price it’s almost comical. This isn’t just bullishness; it’s a bet that Tesla will break through $500 before this Friday’s expiry. The block trade data backs this up: a 1,200-lot call buy at $380 (TSLA20250919C380) and a 200-lot put sale at $410 (TSLA20260116P410) suggest institutional players are either hedging or positioning for a rebound.

But here’s the catch: Tesla’s RSI at 53.39 and MACD histogram (-2.03) signal a potential pullback. The $452.3 intraday low is now support—if it breaks, those $490 calls turn into firewood. Yet the 30-day moving average at $446.60 and 200D MA at $358.08 still trend higher, so this isn’t a death knell for bulls.

News vs. Options: A Clash of Narratives

Tesla’s recent headlines are brutal. The $2.9B supply deal slashed to $7,386? That’s a gut punch for battery production. And Q4 delivery estimates falling short by 15%? It’s enough to make even the most bullish investor wince. Yet the options market isn’t pricing in doom. Why? Because the puts dominating OI ($190, $250) are so far out they’re almost irrelevant. Traders are betting the market has already priced in the worst—or that management’s cost-cutting and Model Y retooling will offset these hits.

But don’t ignore the puts entirely. The $450 strike (14,403 OI) near Tesla’s current price is a red flag. If sentiment shifts, this could become a magnet for panic selling.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Prudent

• For Options: Buy TSLA20260102C500 (this Friday’s $500 call) if the stock breaks above $456.55 (Bollinger upper band). Target a $10–$15 move before expiry. Alternatively, TSLA20260109C492.5 (next Friday’s $492.5 call) offers a slightly safer entry if the initial breakout fails.
• For Stock: Consider entries near $430.6 (30-day resistance) if the 200D MA at $358.08 holds. A break above $456.55 could target $475, but watch the $452.3 support level like a hawk.
• For Hedges: Buy TSLA20260102P450 to cap downside risk if the news-driven selloff resumes. It’s cheap but sits near current price levels.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Hopes and Bearish Realities

Tesla’s story is a tug-of-war. The options market is leaning bullish, but recent news paints a bearish near-term picture. The key is timing: if the stock holds above $452.3, the $500 calls could be a fireworks show. But if it cracks that level, the 200D MA looms like a brick wall. Either way, the next 72 hours—especially with expiry on Jan 2—will be critical. Keep an eye on those block trades; that $410 put sale might mean someone’s expecting a storm. But storms can clear, and Tesla’s long-term averages still point north. Stay nimble, and don’t let one bad headline blind you to the bigger picture.