Tesla’s Options Imbalance and Whale Moves: A Bullish Play at $450–$460?

• TSLA trades at $449.24, up 0.56% with volume surging to 43.4M shares.
• Call open interest (4.27M) outpaces puts (3.73M), with a put/call ratio of 0.87.
• Block trades hint at institutional activity, including $3.8M in TSLA20250919C380 calls.

The market is whispering: Tesla’s options activity screams bullish bias, but the news isn’t all sunshine.Bullish Sentiment Locked in at $450–$460

Options data tells a clear story. This Friday’s top OTM calls are stacked at $450 (OI: 28,299), $460 (27,444), and $455 (12,556), while puts are skewed toward extreme downside bets like $140 (OI: 40,262). The call-heavy profile suggests traders are pricing in a near-term pop—likely targeting the 30D support/resistance zone of $429.73–$431.28 as a base. But here’s the catch: the RSI at 56.94 and MACD (-0.4) hint at a potential pullback if the $445.39 intraday low breaks. Block trades like TSLA20250919C380 ($3.8M) and TSLA20250919C400 ($1.36M) add intrigue—could these be whales hedging or front-running a breakout?

News: Optimism vs. Reality Check

Tesla’s robotaxi hype and Optimus robots are fueling the bullish narrative, but Michael Burry’s bearish take—calling TSLA “ridiculously overvalued”—adds friction. The stock’s 294 P/E ratio and 16x sales multiple are straining against fundamentals like 1% 2024 revenue growth and 7.2% operating margins. Here’s the tension: options traders are betting on AI-driven optimism, while earnings reports and margin pressures could trigger volatility. If robotaxi delays hit, the $383.81 lower Bollinger Band becomes a critical watchpoint.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $450–$460, Short Puts at $400

For options: Buy TSLA20251205C450 (strike $450, expiring Friday) or TSLA20251205C460. Why? The $450 strike aligns with the 30D moving average (432.18) and RSI neutrality, giving it a fighting chance if the stock holds above $445.39. For next Friday, TSLA20251212C480 (OI: 7,603) offers leverage if the rally accelerates.

For stock: Consider entry near $445–$447 if support holds, with a target at $460–$470 (aligning with Bollinger Upper Band at 462.17). A stop-loss below $435 would protect against a breakdown. Short-term traders could sell puts at TSLA20251205P400 (OI: 6,097) to collect premium if the stock stays above $400.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s options and news flow paint a split-screen scenario: bulls are all-in on AI and robotics, while bears eye margin cracks. The key is execution—robotaxi delays or a surge in Cybercab adoption will dictate the next move. For now, the $450–$460 call strikes and $400 put short are your best bets to ride or hedge this high-stakes narrative. Stay nimble—this stock isn’t sleeping.

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Data as of Dec 4, 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always assess risk tolerance before trading.