Tesla's March Delivery Number Will Be 'Ugly' But June Will Be Uglier

Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up! We're diving headfirst into the wild world of Tesla, where the ride is anything but smooth. Gene Munster, the sharp-minded Managing Partner at Deepwater Asset Management, has just dropped a bombshell: Tesla's March delivery numbers are going to be UGLY, and June? Well, June is going to be even uglier. Let's break it down, folks!

First things first, Munster is predicting a 5% decline in Tesla's deliveries for 2025. OUCH! That's a hard pill to swallow, especially after Tesla's meteoric rise in recent years. But here's the kicker: Munster also sees a 40% surge in deliveries for 2026. So, what gives? Why the rollercoaster ride?



Let's start with the bad news. Munster points out that Tesla's ambitious plans to double U.S. vehicle production within two years will put a massive strain on their cash flow. This means near-term pain for long-term gain. But here's the million-dollar question: will consumers buy into this increased capacity? That's the wildcard, folks. With political backlash and fierce competition, consumer demand is far from guaranteed.

Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room: Elon Musk. His political activities and associations have sparked a firestorm of controversy, leading to protests and vandalism against Tesla showrooms and vehicles. This political backlash could continue to impact consumer sentiment and purchasing decisions, further affecting delivery numbers. It's a tough pill to swallow, but it's the reality we're facing.

But wait, there's more! Tesla is also grappling with increased competition, particularly from Chinese automakers like BYD. These competitors are nipping at Tesla's heels, and it's only a matter of time before they catch up. Add to that the production slowdowns tied to the updated Model Y SUV, and you've got a recipe for disaster.



So, what's the bottom line? Munster's analysis suggests that while Tesla faces significant near-term challenges, the company's long-term prospects remain positive. The evolution of these factors over the next few quarters will be critical in determining Tesla's delivery performance and overall market position. But one thing is for sure: it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Stay tuned, folks! The Tesla rollercoaster is far from over, and we'll be here every step of the way, keeping you informed and ahead of the curve.