Tesla Jumps 4.7% On Bullish Technicals As Volume Surges Past $300

Tesla (TSLA) rose 4.73% in the latest session, closing at $309.87 after trading between $300 and $310.48, a bullish breakout accompanied by elevated volume. This analysis synthesizes key technical perspectives.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal notable patterns. The 7/10 candle formed a long white body following a doji on 7/9, signaling bullish conviction after consolidation. Earlier, the 7/7 session printed a long bearish candle with high volume, establishing $288.77 as critical support. Resistance is firm near $318–$325, a zone tested unsuccessfully on 7/3 and 6/30. The June 23 hammer at $327.48 confirmed a reversal, anchoring intermediate-term support.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term momentum is bullish with the 50-day MA ($299.70) crossing above the 100-day MA ($297.50). The 200-day MA ($280.40) maintains an upward slope, confirming the primary uptrend. However, price tested the 200-day MA during the May dip, reinforcing its role as major support. Sustained trading above the 50/100-day cluster suggests near-term strength.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows strengthening bullish momentum, with the histogram expanding after a July 5 crossover. The KDJ oscillators are rising (K:78, D:72), approaching overbought territory but without divergence. This confluence supports continuation potential, though KDJ >80 would heighten pullback risk. Bearish divergence was last observed in late June when price highs decoupled from declining KDJ peaks.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction preceded the 7/10 breakout, with bands narrowing sharply after July 4. Price now presses the upper band ($312), typically indicating short-term overextension. The June squeeze preceded a strong directional move, and current band expansion validates bullish momentum. Critical support rests at the 20-day moving average ($299.50) within the bands.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 7/10 advance occurred on 103M shares – the highest volume in four sessions – confirming accumulation. Distribution was evident during the 7/7 sell-off (131M shares). Volume consistently expanded during upside breaks (June 23: 190M shares, +8.23%) and contracted during pullbacks, affirming bullish conviction. The March–April rally saw persistently high volume, establishing a supportive volume profile near $260.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI (65) is approaching overbought territory but without bearish divergence. Weekly RSI (58) has room before the 70 warning threshold. Notably, RSI dipped to 28 during the May 21 low, signaling oversold conditions that preceded a 30% rally. Current levels suggest moderate bullish momentum, though sustained trade >70 would indicate overheating.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the March–June rally ($238–$357):
- 38.2% retracement at $312.50 aligns with current resistance
- 50% level at $297.50 coincides with the 100-day MA
- 61.8% support at $282.50 matches the June 5 swing low
The 7/10 close surpassed the 38.2% level, targeting the 23.6% retracement at $322. A failure to hold $297.50 would expose the 50% Fibonacci/MA confluence.
Confluence is observed at $297–$300, where the 100-day MA, June swing high, and 50% Fibonacci level cluster. This zone underpins the current breakout. Divergence remains absent between MACD, RSI, and price, supporting trend continuation. However, proximity to Bollinger Band resistance and rising KDJ warrant monitoring for overbought signals in the $312–$322 band.