Tesla Forecast: Deutsche Bank Predicts Q4 Launch of Low-Cost EV, Q2 Earnings Expectations Raised

Tesla (TSLA) has received a bullish note from Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu ahead of Q2 earnings. Yu expects Tesla to launch its low-cost EV, the Model Q, in Q4 and projects Q2 sales of $22.2 billion and automotive gross margins of 14% (excluding credits). For FY25, Yu expects total deliveries of 1.58 million units, down nearly 12% YoY. He maintains a Buy rating and $345 price target, implying 4.7% upside from current levels.

Tesla (TSLA) has received a bullish note from Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu ahead of its Q2 earnings. Yu expects Tesla to launch its low-cost EV, the Model Q, in Q4 and projects Q2 sales of $22.2 billion and automotive gross margins of 14% (excluding credits). For FY25, Yu expects total deliveries of 1.58 million units, down nearly 12% YoY. He maintains a Buy rating and $345 price target, implying 4.7% upside from current levels.

Yu's positive outlook is supported by Tesla's strong Q2 performance, with 384,000 vehicles delivered, a 14% increase from Q1, despite a 13% year-over-year decline [2]. The robust performance in the U.S. and international markets compensated for weaker-than-expected results in China. Deutsche Bank forecasts Q2 revenue at $22.2 billion, driven by an optimized Model Y mix, boosting average sales price by 4% and improving automotive gross margins to 14% from 12.5% in Q1.

Looking ahead, analysts maintain a cautious outlook for Tesla's second-half deliveries and profit margins, noting uncertainty around the Model Q launch and competitive pressures in China. While Deutsche Bank estimates Tesla's full-year 2025 deliveries at 1.58 million, below the market consensus of 1.62 million, the bank has adjusted its full-year automotive gross margin forecast to 13.8% due to lower-than-expected U.S. tariffs.

Despite short-term challenges, Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving and humanoid robots are seen as pivotal for its long-term growth. The company has initiated a small-scale Robotaxi program in Austin, expected to expand to San Francisco, Phoenix, and Miami within 6 to 9 months, potentially reaching over 1,000 vehicles. Analysts highlight this as a key area for Tesla's disruptive innovation and market leadership.

References:
[1] https://www.financialexpress.com/auto/car-news/tesla-model-3-plus-registered-in-china-launch-in-september-report/3917553/
[2] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2988925/strong-q2-delivery-boosts-tesla-tsla-amid-future-challenges