Tesla's Earnings Performance: Historical Stock Reactions and Market Expectations

Tesla's stock performance post-earnings has been mixed, with a median return of -0.7% one day later, 2.4% at one quarter, and 20.2% at one year. Historical data shows that the stock tends to perform better when held for longer periods after earnings announcements. The options market is also expected to be active ahead of the earnings release.

Tesla (TSLA) is set to report its second-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, July 3, 2025. The company's financial performance is expected to show a decline in both revenue and profits compared to the same period last year, with analysts divided on the stock's future prospects.

Key Takeaways
Tesla is projected to report a 10% decline in revenue to $22.9 billion and a nearly 20% year-over-year drop in adjusted earnings per share to $0.43, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha [1]. Analysts are split on the stock, with a mean price target of $299.52, which is about 9% below the current market price of $327 [1].

Bearish Views
UBS analysts believe Tesla is "fundamentally overvalued" and have a price target of $215, well below the current price [1]. They expect the stock's movement to be more influenced by CEO Elon Musk's comments on the earnings call about the robotaxi program and other projects than by the actual results. JPMorgan analysts, with a Street-low price target of $115, continue to see risk to the full-year outlook and valuation due to falling deliveries [1].

Bullish Views
Wedbush analysts, however, are more optimistic. They note that Tesla returned to sales growth in China for the first time in eight months in June and have a price target of $500 [1]. They expect investors to focus on AI initiatives like robotaxis and humanoid bots.

Options Market Activity
The options market is expected to be active ahead of the earnings release, with investors positioning for potential price movements based on the company's performance and Musk's comments on the earnings call [2].

Historical Performance
Historical data shows that Tesla's stock tends to perform better when held for longer periods after earnings announcements. The median return one day later is -0.7%, at one quarter is 2.4%, and at one year is 20.2% [3].

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-think-tesla-stock-ahead-162532103.html
[2] https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/07/46553680/tesla-stock-is-trending-tuesday-whats-going-on
[3] https://www.tipranks.com/news/market-woes-set-bearish-mood-ahead-of-teslas-tsla-q2-earnings-call