Tesla : A Bright Future or a Shadowy Path Ahead?

In the recent earnings call, Elon Musk once again made headlines with his bold announcement that Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) system is expected to enter the Chinese and European markets before the end of the year, and revealing that the Robotaxi will be unveiled on October 10th. These are seen as potential catalysts for Tesla's growth in the second half of the year, but they are also viewed by some as a diversion from the current sluggish sales growth.

Financial Data Reveals the Truth

Tesla achieved revenue of $25.5 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, which appears solid. However, a deeper analysis reveals that this growth is mainly due to the explosive growth of the energy business, while the key automotive business faces a slowdown in growth. Automotive revenue fell 6.5% year-on-year, and even after excluding credits, revenue fell short of market expectations. More worrisome is that the business's gross margin dropped to 14.6%, lower than the market's expectation of 16.2%, a clear decline in profitability.

Growth in Deliveries and Sales

While Tesla saw an increase in new car deliveries in the second quarter, it still failed to achieve year-on-year growth. In order to stimulate sales, Tesla has implemented a series of measures globally, including price reductions and lowering purchase interest rates in China and the United States. These have boosted sales in the short term, but the sustainability of demand in the long run remains a question.

Intensifying Competition with New Models

Another challenge Tesla faces is the intensification of competition in the market. In the Chinese market, Tesla's sales have slumped by 17%, partly due to the impact of new entrants such as Xiaomi, Jikr, and Zhiji. Tesla is trying to counter this by launching new models, but the progress of its new models seems to be lagging behind. The project for the development of a low-priced model has been cancelled and replaced with a smaller version based on the existing Model 3 platform.

The Future of Self-Driving

Despite the various challenges, Musk is confident in Tesla's self-driving technology, believing it will be key to Tesla's future growth. However, FSD's adoption rate in the US is low, and its price is higher than that of domestic competitors, raising questions about whether it can become a major source of revenue in the short term. Additionally, while Tesla's Robotaxi service is promising, it still faces technical and regulatory hurdles in achieving operation.

Challenges and Opportunities Coexist

Tesla's future path seems both bright and shadowed. On one hand, it has immense potential in the energy business and self-driving technology; on the other hand, the slowdown in automotive business growth, the intensifying market competition, and the challenges with new model development all cast a shadow over Tesla's future. Investors and market observers are closely watching to see whether Tesla can overcome these challenges and achieve its long-term growth vision.