TerraClassicUSD/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price dipped after 17:30 ET, forming bearish momentum until 22:30 ET.
• Bounced back post-23:00 ET but failed to regain key resistance at 0.0075.
• Volume surged during early morning recovery (00:00–08:00 ET), signaling mixed conviction.

The TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) pair opened at 0.00747 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.00759, touched a low of 0.00732, and closed at 0.00752 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. Total trading volume for the 24-hour window was 53,184,996.5, with a notional turnover of approximately $394,640 (based on average price of ~0.00743).

Price action showed a bearish bias in the afternoon with a 1.6% drop from 0.00746 to 0.00736 over two hours. The recovery started after 23:00 ET, where prices rebounded to 0.00743–0.00748, but failed to break above 0.00750 consistently. A key resistance at 0.00750 and support at 0.00740 are clearly visible, with the price consolidating between them for much of the day.

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossing below the price late in the afternoon, reinforcing the bearish sentiment before the recovery. The 200-period MA at ~0.00742 held as a critical support level during the afternoon drop.

Structure & Formations

Notable patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern between 18:30 and 18:45 ET, which confirmed the shift in sentiment. A doji candle at 20:15 ET indicated indecision during the consolidation phase. The price found support at 0.00740–0.00743 multiple times, suggesting a strong short-term floor.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages dipped below price during the bearish phase but started to converge upward during the late-night recovery. The 50-period MA is currently at ~0.00746, aligning with a key support zone. The daily 50/100/200 MA alignment is neutral, with the price hovering near the 50-day MA (~0.00744) as of the final hour.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the afternoon, with a bearish crossover around 17:30 ET. However, the RSI (14) showed a bounce from ~40 to ~53 during the late-night rally, indicating some re-entry of buyers. The RSI did not breach overbought (70) or oversold (30) levels, suggesting a moderate momentum environment.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the Bollinger Band channels for most of the day, with a slight expansion in volatility observed between 00:00–08:00 ET. During this period, the bands widened, and the price moved from the lower band to the upper band, indicating increased volatility in the early morning recovery.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the recovery phase, especially from 00:00–08:00 ET, with a peak of 6,129,338 at 08:15 ET. This was accompanied by a rise in notional turnover, indicating that the rally was supported by active trading. A divergence occurred during the afternoon decline, where volume dipped despite a sharp price drop, suggesting weak bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.00732–0.00759 swing, key levels at 38.2% (0.00744) and 61.8% (0.00747) acted as strong support and resistance. The price bounced off the 38.2% level multiple times, reinforcing its relevance in near-term trading decisions.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD-based strategy, which buys USTCUSDT on a golden cross and holds for 14 days or until the next signal, aligns with the observed technical behavior. The morning rally on 2025-11-10, supported by a MACD crossover and a surge in volume, is a textbook entry signal for the strategy. However, the inability to break 0.00750 suggests a potential test of the strategy’s exit rules, which may trigger a sell signal or a wait for the next golden cross. The moderate returns and limited drawdowns observed historically suggest that the strategy could serve as a viable risk-managed approach in this market environment, particularly in consolidating trends like the one seen over the past 24 hours.