Terra/Tether Market Overview

• Price action drifted in a narrow range, with a bearish close despite a midday push to 0.1031.
• Momentum indicators show mixed signals, suggesting indecision in the market.
• Volatility has slightly increased, with Bollinger Bands showing modest expansion.
• Volume remains above average, with notable spikes in the late ET hours.
• No strong candlestick patterns confirmed breakout potential on the 15-minute chart.

Opening and Daily Range

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.0982 on October 12, 2025, and traded between 0.0978 and 0.1031 over the 24-hour period. The price closed at 0.1012 by 12:00 ET on October 13. Notional turnover amounted to approximately $102.4 million with a total volume of 6,905,919.6 LUNA, reflecting modest buying and selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a choppy price action with no clear directional bias. A key support level formed around the 0.1002–0.1006 range, with several candles closing near this area. On the higher end, resistance appeared at 0.1012–0.1024, where the price repeatedly stalled. A small bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the close, indicating possible short-term bearish momentum. Additionally, a doji formed at 0.1003, signaling indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in the lower end of the range, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages continue to diverge, with price staying below the 200-day average, indicating ongoing bearish sentiment on a longer time frame.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum, while the RSI fluctuated between 45 and 60, suggesting a neutral to slightly overbought condition. No clear divergence between price and momentum indicators was observed, implying that the market is still in a balanced phase, though caution is warranted as RSI approaches the overbought threshold.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion, with price spending most of the period in the central third of the band. The upper band touched 0.1031, where the highest close was recorded, indicating the upper limit of the range. The lower band hovered near 0.1002–0.1005, which acted as a support cluster for the last few sessions. The price remains within the expected volatility range, suggesting no immediate breakout is likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was consistently above the 100,000 LUNA average per 15-minute candle, with the largest volume spike occurring at 13:45 ET when 1,771,055 LUNA changed hands. Notional turnover increased in tandem, especially between 13:45 ET and 15:00 ET. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, suggesting that the market is still consolidating and that volume is supporting the price range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the last 15-minute swing suggest that 0.1002 and 0.1012 (38.2% and 61.8% levels) are critical for near-term support and resistance. On the daily chart, the 0.0992 level (38.2%) and 0.1002 (61.8%) are the most significant retracement levels. These levels may dictate the next directional move, depending on the strength of the upcoming candlestick patterns.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD-based backtest strategy aims to identify Golden Cross signals on the LUNA/USDT pair for a 3-day holding period. However, due to the delisting of the original LUNA token and rebranding into LUNC or LUNA2, the symbol "LUNAUSDT" may not be available on many data platforms. Investors should clarify whether the target is LUNC/USDT or LUNA2/USDT before proceeding. Once the symbol is confirmed, historical data can be retrieved to test the strategy’s viability from 2022 to present.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caution

Looking ahead, the market may remain in a consolidative phase as the price hovers near key support and resistance levels. A break above 0.1024 could signal a test of the upper range, while a drop below 0.1002 may increase bearish momentum. Investors should remain cautious as the market remains in a delicate balance, with potential for either breakout or continuation of the range-bound action.