Terra/Tether Market Overview: 2025-09-19

• LUNAUSDT fell from 0.1681 to 0.1562 amid a volatile 24-hour session with multiple reversals.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared after a sharp 15-minute upsurge in early afternoon ET.
• RSI moved into oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• Total volume surged to over 8 million, with a notional turnover of $1.3 million.
• Price remains below both 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart.

The LUNAUSDT pair for Terra/Tether opened at 0.1567 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1563 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The 24-hour range spanned from 0.1681 to 0.1562, with a total trading volume of ~8.1 million LUNA and a notional turnover of ~$1.3 million. The session featured sharp reversals, including a brief 1.3% rebound after a bearish breakout.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 16:15–16:30 ET window after an early reversal attempt. Key support levels appear at 0.1562–0.1563, where the price found a floor on multiple occasions. Resistance is concentrated near 0.165–0.166, where price struggled to close above after midday. A bullish inside bar pattern emerged in the overnight session, suggesting a potential counter-trend bounce if volume increases.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period (0.1585) and 50-period (0.1592) moving averages, indicating bearish control. The 50-period MA is trending lower, reflecting a weakening short-term trend. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA appears to offer a long-term floor near 0.150, but the 50-period and 100-period MAs remain neutral to slightly bearish.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute RSI reached an oversold level near 30 by early morning ET, hinting at a potential bounce. However, the MACD line remained bearish with a negative histogram, suggesting momentum has not reversed. A bullish divergence in RSI and a narrowing histogram in MACD could signal a temporary reversal if volume picks up during consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained compressed within the Bollinger Bands for the first half of the session before breaking to the downside with increased volatility. By the end of the 24-hour period, the bands had widened again as volatility increased, with price closing near the lower band. This suggests a potential short-term bounce toward the midline, though further bearish pressure could drag price toward the band floor.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to ~8.1 million LUNA during the 16:15–18:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp 6% move from 0.162 to 0.1563. Notional turnover spiked to ~$1.3 million as a result. However, volume has since declined to average levels near 150,000–200,000 LUNA per 15 minutes. This suggests the sharp decline was driven by a concentrated sell wave, but broader participation is yet to materialize.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.1681–0.1562 swing, key levels appear at 0.1624 (38.2%), 0.1603 (50%), and 0.1582 (61.8%). Price has stalled at 0.1582–0.1585 on multiple occasions and could face renewed resistance there if the oversold RSI triggers a bounce. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement of the recent weekly swing is near 0.1605, aligning with recent consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI, a backtesting strategy might trigger a long entry if the price retests the 0.1562–0.1563 support level with a bullish candlestick confirmation. A stop-loss could be placed below 0.1550, while a take-profit target might aim at the 0.1603–0.1624 retracement levels. This approach leverages reversal signals from RSI and Fibonacci levels, commonly used in breakout and countertrend strategies.