Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) Market Overview – October 10, 2025

• LUNAUSDT rose 0.1322 to 0.1356 on a 24-hour bullish reversal from early selling.
• Price tested 0.1304 intraday before reclaiming 0.1350, indicating strong resilience.
• Volume spiked at 15:30–16:00 ET during the 0.1288–0.1308 decline, signaling panic selling.
• RSI hit oversold levels early, suggesting potential short-covering and momentum recovery.
• Bollinger Bands showed high volatility during the selloff, with price closing near the upper band.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.1322 on October 9 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1356 on October 10 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1363 and a low of 0.1268 during the 24-hour period. Total traded volume amounted to 15.4 million, with notional turnover reaching $2.15 million. The pair exhibited a complex price action driven by strong volatility and shifting momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bearish breakdown from 0.1350–0.1360, followed by a sharp reversal at 0.1288. A gravestone doji at 0.1290–0.1308 and a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.1340–0.1356 indicated key turning points. The 0.1304 level emerged as a critical support area, holding against several attempts to break lower. Resistance appears to be building near 0.1350 and 0.1360, where several bullish rejection candles formed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMA crossed above the price around 0.1345–0.1348, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period EMA at 0.1343 and 100-period EMA at 0.1338 suggest a mixed setup, with the 200-period EMA at 0.1315 acting as a longer-term floor. Daily MA indicators showed divergence, with the 200-day EMA still above the current price, implying a potential for further consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover at 0.1300, followed by a bullish divergence as RSI rebounded from oversold territory. RSI bottomed at 22–25 during the selloff and climbed to 53–55 in the final hours, indicating moderate momentum recovery. A golden cross in the 15-minute MACD histogram suggests potential follow-through to 0.1360–0.1370, but a bearish twist is likely without a close above 0.1355–0.1360.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the upper band during the rebound and touched the lower band during the 0.1268–0.1308 sell-off. The 15-minute Bollinger Band width showed a contraction during consolidation and expanded sharply during the 15:30–16:00 ET sell-off, reflecting heightened volatility and uncertainty. The recent bounce near the upper band suggests a potential retesting of 0.1355–0.1360 before the next move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 15:30–16:00 ET sell-off, with a single 15-minute candle printing a volume of 1.55 million, a 20% increase over the average. This was accompanied by a notional turnover spike of $240,000, suggesting liquidation. In the final 2 hours, volume normalized and closed in positive territory, with a turnover of $180,000 on rising bids. A divergence between volume and price suggests bearish exhaustion at the 0.1308 level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.1268–0.1363 swing show the 0.1309–0.1314 level (38.2%) as a potential area of reaccumulation and the 0.1340–0.1345 level (61.8%) as a probable continuation target. Daily Fibonacci levels from the 0.1268–0.1363 range indicate 0.1335 and 0.1360 as pivotal support and resistance zones, respectively. A close above 0.1355 could trigger a retest of 0.1370.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long at a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close above the 20-period EMA and retesting of the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Short positions could be triggered on bearish divergences in the MACD and RSI, especially if volume fails to confirm price strength at key resistance levels. Using a trailing stop at the 50-period EMA and a fixed stop at the recent low of 0.1290–0.1268 can help manage risk while capturing directional moves.