Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis and Outlook

• Price dropped from 0.1436 to 0.1402, with bearish momentum intensifying after 19:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Volatility and turnover surged during the 13:15–14:30 ET window, indicating heightened interest.
• Key support at 0.1395–0.1402 and resistance at 0.1416–0.1422 were tested multiple times.
• Bollinger Band contraction in early hours signaled potential breakout or breakdown risk.

The Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) pair opened at 0.1423 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1436, and a low of 0.1371, closing at 0.1402 as of 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour trading volume was 8,843,646.04 LUNA, and notional turnover amounted to $1,236,011.45. The pair exhibited bearish sentiment after 19:00 ET, with a clear breakdown from earlier consolidation.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a bearish breakdown, particularly from 19:00 to 20:15 ET, where price fell below 0.1410 and found support at 0.1395–0.1402. A morning bullish engulfing pattern at 00:15–00:30 ET signaled a short-lived reversal before bearish momentum reasserted. Doji and spinning top patterns in the 19:15–20:00 ET window suggest indecision and exhaustion on the short side, though this was quickly negated by renewed selling pressure.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both turned downward after 19:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price closed below both lines, with the 50SMA at ~0.1411 now acting as resistance. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs are also in a downward bias, with the 200SMA around 0.1430 acting as a critical overhead level.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.1436 high to 0.1371 low placed key support at 0.1410 (38.2%), 0.1395 (50%), and 0.1381 (61.8%). Price held above 0.1395 through much of the day but finally broke it late, indicating a potential target at 0.1381–0.1371 if the trend continues.

MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands

The MACD turned negative after 18:00 ET and maintained bearish momentum through the end of the session. RSI dropped below 30 at 19:15 ET, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a rebound—indicating potential bearish continuation. Bollinger Bands showed a slight contraction during the early hours, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke lower. Price closed near the lower band at the end of the session, signaling continued bearish pressure.

Volume and Turnover

Trading volume surged between 13:15–14:30 ET, with over 1.5 million LUNA traded during the 13:15–13:30 ET window alone. This volume spike coincided with the high of the session at 0.1436, indicating a failed attempt to break higher. A divergence between price and volume after 19:00 ET, with volume dropping despite continued price decline, may suggest exhaustion on the bearish side and the potential for a bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described utilizes a combination of MACD crossover, RSI oversold conditions, and Bollinger Band contractions as entry triggers. A long position is initiated when RSI dips below 30 and MACD turns positive, particularly after a Bollinger Band contraction. Given the RSI’s dip below 30 and Bollinger Band expansion seen today, the strategy would have triggered a potential long setup. However, the bearish divergence in volume suggests the setup may not hold unless additional confirmation is seen. In a bearish environment, a modified version of this strategy could also short-sell after a breakdown below key support levels confirmed by increasing volume.