Teradyne Outlook - Navigating Weak Technicals and Strong Fundamentals

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Despite weak technical signals, Teradyne (TER) shows strong fundamentals but faces a recent price decline of -4.76%.

2. News Highlights

• McKinsey on Tariffs: New research from McKinsey & Co highlights the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on the semiconductor sector. This could influence Teradyne's market dynamics due to its exposure to global supply chains.
• Japan-U.S. Cooperation: Japan is expected to propose greater collaboration with the U.S. in rare earths and semiconductor production, potentially benefiting Teradyne through supply chain resilience and policy support.
• ETF Outflow: The US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) faced a $750M net outflow in May 2025. This may signal broader market caution affecting the sector, including Teradyne.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score: 3.80 (simple mean) and Weighted Rating Score: 4.62 (performance-weighted).

Rating Consistency: Analysts show some dispersion in views, with 3 "Neutral" and 2 "Strong Buy" ratings. This reflects cautious optimism despite the current price fall.

Alignment with Price Trend: Analyst ratings appear optimistic compared to the recent price decline. However, historical average returns of some institutions are negative or modest.

• Key Fundamental Factor: Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit (%) - 100.0% (internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• Total profit (YoY growth rate %) - -30.18% (internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Diluted earnings per share (YoY growth rate %) - -28.57% (internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth rate %) - -29.23% (internal diagnostic score: 3.00)

4. Money-Flow Trends

Overall Inflow Ratio: 51.42% (positive trend) indicates a slight net inflow of capital into Teradyne.

• Small Investors: 52.46% inflow ratio suggests retail participation remains positive.
• Large and Extra-Large Investors: Mixed signals with Large inflow ratio at 49.03% (negative trend) but Extra-large inflow at 52.05% (positive trend).
• Block Inflow Ratio: 51.56% indicates institutional investors are showing moderate confidence in the stock.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technical Score: 2.93 (internal diagnostic score: weak trend, avoid).

• MACD Death Cross: Score 2.50 (internal diagnostic score). A bearish signal indicating a potential downward momentum.
• WR Oversold: Score 1.59 (internal diagnostic score). Indicates the stock is in an oversold condition, which might hint at a short-term rebound.
• Piercing Pattern: Score 1.00 (internal diagnostic score). A bearish reversal pattern observed recently.
• Bearish Engulfing: Score 3.66 (internal diagnostic score). Suggests further downward movement could follow.
• Ex-Dividend Date: Score 4.42 (internal diagnostic score). Neutral to slightly positive impact on short-term price.
• Dividend Record Date: Score 4.42 (internal diagnostic score). Again, a positive short-term influence.

Recent Indicators by Date:

• 2025-09-10: Piercing Pattern (bearish reversal).
• 2025-09-12: WR Oversold (oversold condition).
• 2025-09-08: MACD Death Cross + Bearish Engulfing (strong bearish signals).

Key Insights: The recent technical signals are overwhelmingly bearish (4 vs 0 bullish), and the overall trend is weak, suggesting caution or avoidance.

6. Conclusion

Actionable Takeaway: Investors should consider waiting for a potential pull-back or clearer reversal signals before entering the stock. Given the weak technical setup and mixed analyst views, patience and close monitoring of key earnings or policy changes could be prudent.