Teradyne Outlook - Navigating Volatility and Mixed Signals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Teradyne (TER) is currently in a mixed bag — technically weak but showing some bullish catalysts in the fundamentals and flows. Stance: Caution is warranted.

News Highlights

Recent developments in the semiconductor sector have cast both light and shadows on Teradyne. Here’s what's trending:

• McKinsey on Tariffs and Chip Supply Chains: A recent report from McKinsey suggests that U.S. tariffs could have a long-term effect on semiconductor supply chains. While this might not directly impact Teradyne in the short term, it signals a volatile backdrop for the industry.
• Japan-U.S. Rare Earths Cooperation: Reports indicate Japan is proposing increased collaboration with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductors, potentially easing supply issues and creating trade opportunities — good news for global semiconductor leaders like Teradyne.
• ETF Outflow in Semiconductor Sector: The Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) experienced a $750M net outflow in May 2025, hinting at investor caution in the space. This could affect Teradyne’s stock price, especially if the trend continues.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are split, with 3 out of 5 recent ratings labeled Neutral and 2 labeled Strong Buy, giving a simple average rating score of 3.80 and a performance-weighted score of 4.62. While the ratings are not perfectly aligned, the market's weighted expectations are optimistic and in line with the current price trend (up 0.71%).

Key Fundamental Factors

• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit: 100.00% (Internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• EV/EBIT: 91.39 (Internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Total Profit (YoY Growth Rate): -30.18% (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (YoY Growth Rate): 53.89% (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Inventory Turnover Days: 106.37 (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)

The scores indicate that while some financial indicators remain strong (e.g., net profit), others (like total profit growth) have weakened recently. This divergence suggests caution is needed before committing capital based on fundamentals alone.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund flows into Teradyne tell an encouraging story. Large- and extra-large-cap investors are showing positive inflow ratios of 49.82% and 50.75%, respectively, indicating institutional confidence. On the retail side, small investors are also showing a positive trend with an inflow ratio of 52.71%. Overall, the fund-flow score is 7.68 (good), suggesting that the broader market is warming up to Teradyne.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, the outlook is bearish. The internal technical score is 3.88, and the overall trend is described as weak, suggesting to avoid the stock. Here’s a breakdown of recent indicators:

• WR Overbought: Biased bearish with an internal diagnostic score of 1.00
• WR Oversold: Neutral bias with an internal diagnostic score of 1.74
• Ex-Dividend Date: Strong bullish with an internal diagnostic score of 7.60
• MACD Death Cross: Neutral bias with an internal diagnostic score of 3.55
• Dividend Record Date: Strong bullish with an internal diagnostic score of 7.60
• Piercing Pattern: Biased bearish with an internal diagnostic score of 1.00

Key insights from the technical side suggest the market is volatile with unclear direction, and while short-term signals are mixed, long-term momentum is weak. Fresh signals like the Ex-Dividend and Dividend Record Dates on September 5, 2025, are bullish, but bearish patterns like the Piercing Pattern on September 10, 2025, are concerning.

Conclusion

Teradyne’s fundamentals show strength in key areas like net profit, but earnings growth has weakened. While institutional and retail flows are positive, the technical picture remains fragile. Investors are advised to wait for clearer momentum or a pull-back in the stock before taking positions. In the interim, watch for upcoming earnings and any sector-specific regulatory updates — they may tilt the balance between caution and optimism.