Teradyne Outlook - Bearish Momentum and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Teradyne (TER) is showing a weak technical outlook and a recent price drop of -5.42%, despite mixed analyst ratings and positive money flows from large investors.

News Highlights

Recent news highlights key developments in the semiconductor sector, with implications for Teradyne:

• May 30: McKinsey on Tariffs and Chip Supply Chains – New research from McKinsey & Co. suggests that U.S. tariffs could reshape chip supply chains, potentially affecting global semiconductor demand and pricing strategies.
• May 28: Semiconductors ETF SOXX Sees $750M Outflow – The SOXX ETF, which includes Teradyne, faced significant outflows in May 2025. This could signal investor concerns about the sector amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
• May 30: Japan-U.S. Cooperation on Rare Earths and Semiconductors – A proposal for greater U.S.-Japan collaboration in rare earths and semiconductors was announced. This could offer long-term strategic benefits for companies like Teradyne involved in advanced chip manufacturing.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided on Teradyne, with a simple average rating of 3.80 and a performance-weighted score of 4.62. While the ratings suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook, the current price trend is negative (-5.42%), creating a mismatch between analyst sentiment and market action.

Key fundamental values and their model scores (internal diagnostic scores, 0-10):

• EV/EBIT: 91.39 → Score: 3.03
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% → Score: 1.00
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate %): -93.20% → Score: 1.00
• Total profit (YoY growth rate %): -30.18% → Score: 3.00
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate %): 53.90% → Score: 2.00
• Diluted earnings per share (YoY growth rate %): -28.57% → Score: 3.00
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth rate %): -29.23% → Score: 3.00

Despite mixed fundamental results, some metrics—like operating cash flow—show recent improvement, though not enough to offset the bearish technical backdrop.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors are showing a positive overall trend in fund flows, with overall inflow ratio at 51.19% and block inflow ratio at 51.27%. Notably, extra-large investors are the most bullish, with a 51.64% inflow ratio. However, the large investor segment is the only one showing a negative trend, which could hint at cautious positioning.

Retail and mid-cap investors also show inflows: medium (50.43%) and small (52.52%) trend positive. This suggests broad retail optimism, though it may not be enough to counterbalance larger investor caution.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for Teradyne is bearish, with an internal diagnostic score of 2.93 and a clear skew toward negative indicators. Here’s a breakdown of key signals:

• MACD Death Cross – Score: 2.50 – A bearish momentum signal indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend.
• WR Oversold – Score: 1.59 – Typically a bullish signal, but with a low win rate (42.86%) and negative average return (-0.68%) in this context.
• Piercing Pattern – Score: 1.00 – A bearish reversal signal, with a 0% win rate and near-zero return (-0.01%).

Recent chart patterns by date (Last 5 Days):

• September 10: Piercing Pattern
• September 12: WR Oversold
• September 8: MACD Death Cross + Bearish Engulfing

Key technical insight: Bearish signals dominate (4 out of 6 indicators), while there are no bullish signals. The model recommends avoiding the stock due to its weak trend and high risk of further decline.

Conclusion

Teradyne is in a technically weak position with bearish momentum and no strong bullish catalysts. While large investors remain cautiously optimistic and analysts offer a mixed but generally positive outlook, the fundamentals and chart patterns suggest caution. Consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer bullish momentum before entering or adding to a position. Watch for earnings or macro updates that could shift sentiment.