Tensor/Tether (TNSRUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Volatility and Late Rally

• Tensor/Tether (TNSRUSDT) fell from $0.1024 to $0.0995 before recovering to $0.1049, showing bearish pressure and a late-day rally.
• A sharp sell-off between 17:00–20:00 ET and consolidation below $0.1005 signaled bearish momentum, later reversed by a late-day bullish thrust.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 24-hour period, with a 15-minute swing range of $0.0021 and high volume on the rally from $0.1021 to $0.1049.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence during the initial decline but turned bullish during the recovery, suggesting shifting sentiment.
• Key support levels around $0.1003–$0.1005 and resistance at $0.1025–$0.1035 were tested multiple times, highlighting potential turning points.

Tensor/Tether (TNSRUSDT) opened at $0.1021 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1045 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.1050 and a low of $0.0991 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 3,615,860.56, and turnover amounted to $362,942.49. A bearish pullback was followed by a late-day bullish thrust, indicating mixed sentiment.

Structure and formations show a significant bearish breakout from $0.1020 to $0.0993, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming on the 17:00–17:15 ET candle. A subsequent bullish recovery brought the price back above key resistance at $0.1025–$0.1035, forming a bullish continuation pattern. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price during the decline, reinforcing the bearish bias. However, the 50-period MA on the daily chart is below the 200-period MA, suggesting longer-term bearish sentiment.

MACD turned bearish during the initial selloff but showed a bullish crossover during the rally, indicating renewed buying pressure. RSI moved from oversold territory at 28 to overbought at 68 during the recovery, suggesting potential short-term exhaustion. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction during the 20:00–22:00 ET consolidation phase and expanded during the breakout, signaling a period of high volatility. Price remained near the upper band during the late-day rally, indicating strong bullish momentum.

Volume and turnover surged during the late-day rally, confirming the price action. Notable divergence appeared between price and volume during the initial selloff, with price falling faster than volume increased, suggesting potential bearish exhaustion. However, during the rally, volume and price aligned, reinforcing the bullish signal. On the Fibonacci retracement of the 17:00–20:00 ET decline, the price found support at the 61.8% level ($0.1005) and later broke above the 78.6% extension ($0.1025). These levels could serve as potential entry or stop-loss points for short-term traders.

The late-day rally could be a continuation of bullish momentum if the price stays above $0.1035. However, a pullback below $0.1020 may indicate a continuation of bearish bias. Traders should watch for a confirmation of the bullish breakout and manage risk accordingly, given the high volatility and mixed signals in the momentum indicators.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on capturing the late-day bullish reversal. Using a combination of RSI (overbought/oversold triggers) and Bollinger Bands (volatility expansion), one could design a system that goes long when RSI crosses above 50 and price breaks out of a tight Bollinger Band contraction. A stop-loss could be placed just below a major support level, such as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a target at the next resistance level. This approach would align with the observed price behavior, particularly the late-day breakout, and could be optimized for risk-reward balance. Given the recent divergence and momentum reversal, this strategy may offer a reasonable edge in the current price environment.