Tensor/Tether Market Overview – 2025-10-10

• Price rose from 0.0952 to 0.1005 before retracting to 0.0938, forming a volatile range with strong consolidation.
• Momentum surged into the early morning, with RSI hitting overbought conditions and a sharp divergence forming.
• Volume spiked sharply during the 03:45–04:00 ET window, confirming the 0.1005 peak as a high-conviction move.
• A deep bearish divergence in the RSI and a breakdown below key support at 0.0952 signal heightened bearish risk.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility surged, with price briefly breaking the upper band before collapsing.

Tensor/Tether (TNSRUSDT) opened at 0.0952 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.1005 before settling at 0.0938 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. Total volume over the 24-hour period reached 8,814,346.0 units, with notional turnover amounting to 847,020.30 USD. Price action was marked by a sharp rebound and divergence, followed by a sharp sell-off in the final 15-minute candle.

Structure & Formations

Price rallied from a key support level at 0.0952, reaching a 5.6% peak at 0.1005 before retracing sharply. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart at 03:45–04:00 ET, signaling exhaustion in the bullish move. A doji at 0.0994 during the early morning indicated indecision among traders. The breakdown below the 0.0952 level and the 0.0934 low signaled a potential continuation of bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke above the 20- and 50-period moving averages during the morning rally, confirming short-term bullish momentum. However, the breakdown below the 20SMA in the afternoon suggested weakening momentum. On the daily chart, price remains below the 50DMA and 200DMA, reinforcing a bearish bias over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The RSI peaked at overbought levels (76) around 03:45 ET, followed by a bearish divergence as price continued to decline. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early sell-off, confirming a bearish turn in momentum. RSI is now in oversold territory (33), but this may indicate a potential short-term bounce rather than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning and early afternoon, with the upper band reaching 0.1005. Price briefly broke above the upper band before retreating and eventually closing below the lower band at 0.0934. The sharp contraction into the final candle suggests increased short-term uncertainty and potential for range expansion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 03:45–04:00 ET candle (442,304.0 units) as price peaked at 0.1005, confirming the high-conviction move. However, a subsequent volume contraction during the sell-off indicated a lack of follow-through buying. Total turnover was unevenly distributed, with a sharp drop-off after the 04:30 ET window, reflecting fading bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.1005 high and 0.0952 low formed a key 5.6% swing. Price retraced to 0.0973 (61.8% level) before breaking below to 0.0934, suggesting a potential extension to 0.0929. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent major move is at 0.0938—coinciding with the 24-hour close, which may act as short-term support or resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on bearish divergence in RSI and a breakdown below key Fibonacci support levels, with tight stops above recent highs. Long entries could be triggered on a retest of 0.0938 and confirmation above the 20SMA. Given the high volatility and recent divergence, a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.5 may be appropriate, with a 2% stop-loss threshold. This approach aligns with the observed patterns in volume, momentum, and price behavior over the last 24 hours.