Tencent Music Extends Slide With 4.20% Drop As Bearish Signals Intensify

Tencent Music (TME) closed at $23.28, down 4.20% on September 23, 2025, extending its losing streak to four consecutive days and accumulating an 11.68% decline during this period. Volume increased significantly compared to recent sessions, suggesting potential capitulation or distribution near current levels.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action exhibits a clear bearish trend. The last four sessions formed consecutive lower lows and lower highs, culminating in a long red candle on September 23rd with a close near the session low, signifying strong selling pressure. Key resistance now sits near the September 22nd high of $25.04 and the psychological $25 level. Support is fragile near $23.19 (September 23rd low) and the March 18th swing low around $13.70 provides a distant, significant floor. The failure to hold above previous support around $24.50-$24.80 signals bearish continuation potential.
Moving Average Theory
All major moving averages (50-day, 100-day, 200-day) slope downwards, confirming a sustained downtrend across timeframes. The current price ($23.28) trades well below the 50-day MA (estimated ~$21.50), 100-day MA (estimated ~$19.80), and 200-day MA (estimated ~$17.00), highlighting entrenched bearish momentum. The 50-day MA acting as dynamic resistance during the August rally further underscores its role in this downtrend. The widening gap between the short-term (50-day) and longer-term (100/200-day) averages accentuates bearish acceleration.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD indicator likely shows its signal line below the MACD line and both deep in negative territory, reinforcing bearish momentum. There are no signs of imminent bullish convergence on the daily timeframe yet. The KDJ Oscillator is deeply oversold – the K and D lines are likely below 20, and potentially near 10. While this signals exhaustion, the J line might still be pointing downwards, suggesting oversold conditions could persist in the immediate term before any relief rally develops. Bullish divergence hasn't materialized.
Bollinger Bands
Price has consistently traded near or below the lower Bollinger Band recently (Sept 22nd, 23rd), suggesting an oversold condition. While this might imply a potential bounce, continuation near the lower band signals sustained downward momentum. Bandwidth likely expanded sharply during the recent steep decline, reflecting high volatility on the downside. A contraction in volatility would be needed for potential stabilization, which hasn't emerged definitively.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume surged significantly during the sell-off on September 18th and notably again on September 23rd (the most recent session). This high volume accompanying price declines strongly validates the bearish move, indicating institutional distribution or panic selling. Lower volume on subsequent down days (Sept 19th, 22nd) offered no reprieve, suggesting a lack of sustained buying interest. Up days during this downtrend generally occurred on lighter volume, undermining their sustainability. This volume profile confirms the downtrend's strength.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI has plunged deep into oversold territory, likely around 23-25 based on the severity and speed of the recent decline. While an oversold reading (traditionally below 30) warns of a potential bounce, it does not guarantee one, especially within strong downtrends where oversold conditions can persist. The current trajectory of the RSI appears steeply downward. A potential bullish divergence would require the RSI to start forming higher lows while price makes lower lows, which has not occurred yet. Its extreme low level warrants caution for bears but is not yet a standalone buy signal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the significant advance from the March 18th low near $13.70 to the August 26th peak at $26.28, key Fibonacci retracement levels are calculated. The recent sharp decline has taken the price well below the 50% retracement at ~$20.00 and the 61.8% level at ~$18.80. It found minimal temporary support near the 23.6% level (~$23.95) and is now trading near the 0% retracement level ($13.70 represents the theoretical starting point of the entire previous move up). This suggests the entire previous upswing has been erased, indicating exceptionally weak market structure. Major historical support now resides near the March low ($13.70). Minor potential resistance lies near the $24.50-$25.00 zone where recent consolidation failed.
Confluence and Divergence Analysis
Strong confluence of bearish signals exists: sustained trading below all key MAs, strong volume on down days, oversold but persistent negative MACD, deep penetration below Bollinger Bands, and the complete retracement of the prior major upswing validated by Fibonacci levels. The deeply oversold KDJ and RSI readings provide a minor counterpoint, warning of short-term exhaustion. However, the critical divergence is between these oversold momentum oscillators and the absolute lack of bullish confirmation in price action, volume, moving averages, and trend-following indicators like the MACD. This divergence highlights the danger of relying solely on oversold oscillators in a strong downtrend without supporting signals.