TNYA Plunges 37% Amid $60M Equity Offering: A Bearish Storm Unfolds

Summary
• Tenaya Therapeutics (TNYA) slumps 37.3% to $0.8522, erasing 62% of its intraday range.
• The stock trades at a 72% discount to its 52-week high of $2.92 amid a $60M public offering.
• Volume surges to 57M shares, 1,625% above its 30-day average of 3.5M.

Today’s collapse in TNYA reflects a perfect storm of capital-raising dilution and investor skepticism. The company’s $60M equity offering—selling 50M units at $1.20—has triggered a liquidity crunch, while recent clinical data for TN-401 and FDA clearance for MyPEAK-1 have failed to offset the bearish sentiment. The stock’s 37% drop underscores a market grappling with valuation pressures and execution risks in gene therapy development.

Equity Offering Triggers Liquidity Crisis
Tenaya’s 37% intraday plunge is directly tied to its $60M public offering, which priced at $1.20 per unit—well below its recent $1.36 close. The offering, consisting of 50M units with warrants, has flooded the market with new shares, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances. Despite positive interim data for TN-401 (showing improved arrhythmia burden) and FDA clearance for MyPEAK-1, investors are prioritizing short-term dilution risks over long-term pipeline potential. The 37% drop reflects a loss of confidence in the company’s ability to execute its capital-raising strategy without further eroding shareholder value.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Liquidity Gaps
• 200-day average: $0.943 (below current price)
• RSI: 63.89 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.015 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 1.1469–1.4741 (current price at lower band)

Key levels to monitor include the 0.785 intraday low and the 200-day SMA at $0.943. Short-term volatility is likely to persist as the offering closes on Dec 15, but the stock’s -37% move suggests overselling near the 0.785 level. For leveraged exposure, consider TNYA20260417P1 and TNYA20260717C1.

TNYA20260417P1 (Put Option)
• Code: TNYA20260417P1
• Strike: $1.00
• Expiration: April 17, 2026
• IV: 128.38% (elevated)
• Delta: -0.422 (moderate bearish sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.000773 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.602 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 7,034
• Price Change: -2.86%
• Leverage: 2.52%

This put option offers asymmetric upside in a bearish scenario. With a delta of -0.422, it gains 42.2% of the underlying’s downside move. The high gamma (0.602) ensures rapid premium gains if TNYA breaks below $0.785. Projected payoff under a 5% downside (to $0.809) yields a 19.1% gain (max profit: $0.191 per share).

TNYA20260717C1 (Call Option)
• Code: TNYA20260717C1
• Strike: $1.00
• Expiration: July 17, 2026
• IV: 152.08% (elevated)
• Delta: 0.684 (moderate bullish sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.000868 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.353 (modest sensitivity)
• Turnover: 8,220
• Price Change: -56.25%
• Leverage: 2.45%

This call option balances risk and reward. A 5% upside (to $0.895) triggers a 9.5% gain (max profit: $0.095 per share). The high IV (152.08%) and moderate delta (0.684) make it ideal for a rebound trade if TNYA stabilizes above $0.85. Aggressive bulls may consider TNYA20260717C1 into a bounce above $0.85.

Backtest Tenaya Therapeutics Stock Performance
The backtest of TNYA's performance after a -37% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. The 3-Day win rate is 45.80%, the 10-Day win rate is 45.60%, and the 30-Day win rate is 45.60%. The maximum return during the backtest was 2.30% over 57 days, indicating that while there were short-term gains, the overall performance was negative with a -0.51% return over 3 days, a -0.22% return over 10 days, and a -0.39% return over 30 days.

Act Now: Position for Volatility or Liquidity-Driven Rebound
The 37% drop in TNYA reflects a liquidity-driven selloff rather than fundamental deterioration. While the offering’s dilution risks remain, the stock’s 72% discount to its 52-week high and oversold RSI (63.89) suggest a potential rebound. Investors should watch the 0.785 support level and the 200-day SMA at $0.943. For context, sector leader Amgen (AMGN) fell 0.21% today, indicating broader biotech fragility. Act now: Buy TNYA20260417P1 for bearish exposure or TNYA20260717C1 for a rebound trade. Monitor the Dec 15 offering close for liquidity clarity.