Tenaya Therapeutics Plummets 34%: What's Behind the Sudden Drop?

Summary
• Tenaya Therapeutics (TNYA) plunges 34.28% to $0.8938, its lowest since 2023
• Company announces $60M public offering and FDA clearance for MyPEAK-1 trial
• TN-401 gene therapy shows robust transduction and reduced arrhythmia burden

Today’s seismic 34% drop in Tenaya Therapeutics reflects a volatile mix of capital-raising moves and clinical progress. The stock traded between $0.8541 and $1.05, a 19% intraday swing, as investors grappled with the implications of a $60M equity offering and regulatory updates. With the FDA lifting the clinical hold on MyPEAK-1 and TN-401 showing early promise, the sell-off raises urgent questions about market sentiment and strategic execution.

Capital-Raising Dilution and Market Sentiment Clash
Tenaya’s 34% plunge stems from a $60M public offering priced at $1.20 per unit, a 20% discount to its 52-week high of $2.92. While the FDA lifting the clinical hold on MyPEAK-1 and TN-401’s positive data should buoy the stock, the aggressive dilution—selling 50M units at $1.20—signals desperation to fund trials. The market’s reaction underscores skepticism about the offering’s terms and the company’s ability to execute its pipeline without further capital burns. Additionally, the stock’s 6.23% turnover rate suggests heavy institutional selling, compounding retail investor anxiety.

Biotech Sector Mixed as AMGN Gains 0.33%
The broader biotech sector remains fragmented, with Amgen (AMGN) rising 0.33% as a sector leader. However, peers like Rezolute (-87%) and Novo Nordisk (-10%) highlight the sector’s volatility. Tenaya’s drop diverges from AMGN’s resilience, reflecting its reliance on speculative gene therapy pipelines and capital-intensive development. While AMGN benefits from established blockbuster drugs, Tenaya’s focus on early-stage genetic therapies amplifies its exposure to regulatory and market risks.

Options and ETF Plays in a Volatile Biotech Landscape
• 200-day MA: $0.943 (below current price), RSI: 63.89 (neutral), MACD: -0.015 (bearish), Bollinger Bands: $1.1469–$1.4741

Tenaya’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias despite a long-term bullish Kline pattern. Key support levels at $0.66–$0.69 (200D) and resistance at $1.27–$1.28 (30D) define the near-term range. The 30D RSI at 63.89 indicates overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram (-0.015) and signal line (-0.037) confirm bearish momentum. Traders should monitor the 200D MA ($0.943) as a critical psychological level.

Top Options Contracts:
• TNYA20260116C1 (Call, $1 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 169.66% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.523 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.003 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.8388 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 508 (liquid)
- Leverage: 5.94%
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.0565 (max gain if price drops to $0.85).
- This contract offers high gamma and IV, ideal for aggressive short-term bets on volatility.

• TNYA20260717C1 (Call, $1 strike, July 17 2026):
- IV: 163.62% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.7125 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0009 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.3026 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 480 (liquid)
- Leverage: 2.23%
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.0435 (max gain if price drops to $0.85).
- This longer-dated option balances time decay with high IV, suitable for holding through potential catalysts.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider TNYA20260116C1 for a volatility play, while TNYA20260717C1 offers a safer, longer-term bet. Watch for a breakdown below $0.8541 to trigger further selling.

Backtest Tenaya Therapeutics Stock Performance
The backtest of TNYA's performance after a -34% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. The 3-Day win rate is 46.14%, the 10-Day win rate is 45.94%, and the 30-Day win rate is 45.54%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.29%, with a maximum return day at 57.

Critical Crossroads: Hold or Halt for Tenaya?
Tenaya’s 34% drop reflects a market grappling with dilution risks and clinical optimism. While the FDA clearance for MyPEAK-1 and TN-401’s positive data are milestones, the $60M offering at a 20% discount to the 52-week high raises red flags. Technicals suggest a bearish near-term outlook, with the 200D MA ($0.943) as a key support. Investors should monitor AMGN’s 0.33% gain for sector sentiment but prioritize risk management. Act now: Short sellers may target $0.66–$0.69, while bulls should wait for a rebound above $1.27 to re-enter.