Tenaris Shares Surge 4.79% on Bullish Technical Breakout

Tenaris (TS) shares surged 4.79% to $38.75 in the most recent session, closing near the day's high of $38.77 on elevated volume of 1.27 million shares. This decisive bullish move follows a minor pullback and establishes a critical technical foundation for analysis.
Candlestick Theory
The recent session formed a robust bullish candle with minimal upper wick, indicating sustained buying pressure into the close. This structure completed a bullish reversal pattern from the prior day's indecisive doji, signaling a rejection of lower prices. Key support is now established at $36.74 (July 1 low), with resistance at the psychological $40.00 level—last challenged in March 2025. A cluster of June troughs near $35.36 provides secondary support.
Moving Average Theory
The price structure demonstrates bullish alignment across timeframes. Tenaris trades firmly above its ascending 50-day moving average (~$35.80), which itself maintains a positive spread above the 100-day MA (~$34.90). The 197-day MA (~$33.75) slopes upward as the long-term anchor. This stacked configuration (price > 50MA > 100MA > 197MA) confirms a strong bullish phase across short, medium, and long-term horizons.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has entered positive territory after a bullish crossover, signaling accelerating upward momentum. However, the KDJ oscillator presents a cautionary signal: Both %K and %D lines exceed 80, reflecting severely overbought conditions. This divergence between MACD's momentum confirmation and KDJ's exhaustion warning warrants vigilance, though the MACD's bullish trajectory currently dominates the signal.
Bollinger Bands
Price closed near the upper Bollinger Band (~$39.00) during the breakout, suggesting extension beyond typical volatility parameters. Bandwidth expansion from June's contraction indicates renewed directional energy. While a reversion toward the 20-day moving average midline ($37.60) remains possible, the volatility expansion on breakout enhances its technical significance.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 4.79% advance occurred on 1.27 million shares—20% above the 30-day average volume. This volume surge validates the breakout's legitimacy. Notably, June's consolidation near $35-37 occurred on declining volume, indicating distribution was absent during basing. The volume profile reinforces the bullish structure, with accumulation confirmed on upswings.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 72 confirms overbought territory (>70). Historically, Tenaris has demonstrated mean-reversion tendencies near RSI 75 during 2025 rallies. While not a reversal signal alone in established uptrends, this reading amplifies the KDJ's overbought warning and suggests limited near-term upside before consolidation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the September 2024 low of $28.08 and March 2025 high of $40.11, critical retracement levels emerge. The recent breakout propelled prices above the 78.6% retracement ($37.15), a key accomplishment that shifts focus toward the 100% extension at $40.11. Intermediate support aligns with the 61.8% level ($35.30), now reinforced by the June consolidation base.
Confluence materializes in the $37.00-37.50 zone, where Fibonacci support, the 50-day moving average, and volume-based demand converge, creating a robust technical floor. The simultaneous Bollinger Band expansion, MACD bullish cross, and volume-backed breakout provide coordinated confirmation of upside potential. However, the overbought cluster (RSI >70, KDJ >80, and upper Bollinger Tag) creates near-term mean-reversion risk. Absent bearish divergences or reversal candlestick patterns, the primary trend remains decisively bullish, though prudent to anticipate volatility near the psychological $40.00 resistance.