Tempus AI Soars 12.14%—What’s Fueling This AI-Driven Surge?

Summary
• Tempus AI (TEM) rockets 12.14% intraday, piercing $87.65 amid a $91.06 high and $79.42 low.
• Turnover surges to 17.5M shares, with RSI at 58.11 and MACD near signal line.
• Kline pattern signals short-term bullish trend but warns of bearish engulfing.
• Sector leader UnitedHealth Group (UNH) gains 2.44%, yet Tempus AI’s move remains unlinked to broader health care.
Tempus AI’s explosive rally defies sector trends, driven by technical momentum and speculative fervor. With the stock nearing its 52-week high of $91.45, traders are scrambling to decipher whether this is a breakout or a correction in the making.

Bullish Momentum Amid Bearish Signal: A Tug-of-War in Tempus AI’s Charts
Tempus AI’s 12.14% surge reflects a clash between short-term bearish signals and long-term bullish momentum. The bearish engulfing pattern—a red candle swallowing a prior green one—typically warns of a potential reversal. However, the stock’s 52-week high proximity and 30-day moving average ($70.35) suggest underlying strength. RSI at 58.11 indicates moderate buying pressure, while Bollinger Bands show the price is trading above the upper band ($82.53), signaling overextension. The key driver appears to be speculative positioning ahead of the September 19 expiration, with call options like TEM20250919C85 seeing 292.59% price change as traders bet on a breakout.

High-Leverage Call Options: Capitalizing on Tempus AI’s Volatility
• 200-day average: $57.04 (well below current price)
• 30-day average: $70.35 (below)
• RSI: 58.11 (neutral)
• MACD: 3.83 (near signal line at 3.86)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $87.65 vs. upper band $82.53 (overextended)

Tempus AI’s technicals suggest a volatile, overextended rally. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high ($91.45) and the 30-day support/resistance range ($75.79–$76.31). While the RSI isn’t overbought, the bearish engulfing pattern warns of potential pullback risks. However, high-liquidity call options offer aggressive leverage for those betting on a continuation.

Top Option 1: TEM20250919C85
• Contract Code: TEM20250919C85
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $85
• Expiration: 2025-09-19
• IV: 73.54% (mid-range)
• Leverage Ratio: 16.48% (high)
• Delta: 0.618 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.432 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0378 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 2.78M (extremely liquid)
This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity. With a 5% upside scenario (price at $92.03), payoff would be $7.03 per contract. The high gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings, while the moderate delta reduces directional risk.

Top Option 2: TEM20250919C87
• Contract Code: TEM20250919C87
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $87
• Expiration: 2025-09-19
• IV: 78.45% (high)
• Leverage Ratio: 19.41% (very high)
• Delta: 0.540 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.429 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.0369 (high)
• Turnover: 216K (liquid)
This contract provides even higher leverage, ideal for aggressive bulls. A 5% upside yields $5.03 per contract. The high IV and gamma make it sensitive to volatility spikes, aligning with the stock’s current trajectory.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider TEM20250919C85 into a breakout above $91.45.

Backtest Tempus AI Stock Performance
Here is the event-study back-test you asked for. You can explore the full interactive report in the panel on the right.Key take-aways (summary of the statistics shown in the module):• Total events detected: 14 • The average 1-day move after a ≥ 12 % surge was +3.1 %, but performance faded quickly and turned negative after the first week. • By day 30 the cumulative excess return versus the benchmark was notably negative and statistically significant.Assumptions & notes: 1. Because intraday high/low data are not available through the current interface, the “surge” was approximated with the close-to-close daily return (≥ 12 %). 2. Missing parameters (e.g., price type) were set to sensible defaults (close prices). 3. Analysis window: events from 2022-01-01 through 2025-09-11.

Act Now: Ride the Wave or Hedge the Reversal
Tempus AI’s 12.14% surge is a high-stakes gamble between technical continuation and bearish reversal. While the 52-week high ($91.45) looms as a critical threshold, the bearish engulfing pattern and overextended RSI suggest caution. Traders should monitor the 30-day support ($75.79) and 200-day resistance ($58.33) for directional clues. UnitedHealth Group’s 2.44% gain underscores sector strength, but Tempus AI’s move remains independent. For those with conviction, high-leverage calls like TEM20250919C85 offer explosive potential—if the stock breaks above $91.45. Action: Watch for a $91.45 close or a breakdown below $85 to pivot strategies.