Telegram's Play-to-Earn Ecosystem as a High-Growth Investment Opportunity in 2025

The rise of Telegram's play-to-earn (P2E) gaming ecosystem has redefined the intersection of blockchain technology and mass-market adoption. By 2025, this niche has evolved into a $2.2 billion market, driven by viral mechanics, low barriers to entry, and the integration of real-world crypto rewards. For investors, the ecosystem presents a unique opportunity to capitalize on scalable user engagement and tokenomics models that leverage Telegram's 950 million active users. This analysis identifies the most promising games-Hamster Kombat, Notcoin, and Catizen-while evaluating their financial performance, scalability, and long-term viability.

The Viral Engine: Scalability and User Acquisition

Telegram's bot-driven architecture enables instant access to P2E games without downloads, a critical factor in their explosive growth. Hamster Kombat, for instance, attracted 300 million users within months of its 2024 launch, while Notcoin and Catizen boast user bases of 35 million and 34 million, respectively according to reports. These figures are underpinned by TON (The Open Network), which processed 3.4 billion transactions in Q3 2025, averaging 123 transactions per second. The network's scalability-supported by Telegram's cloud infrastructure and TON's formal verification methods-ensures seamless gameplay even during user spikes according to analysis.

However, scalability alone does not guarantee sustainability. Catizen faced a 64% drop in daily active users post-airdrop, highlighting the fragility of viral growth. To mitigate this, developers are introducing daily challenges and community-driven economies, aiming to convert casual users into long-term participants.

Financial Performance: Tokenomics and Revenue Streams

The financial metrics of leading games reveal a mix of promise and volatility. Hamster Kombat plans to expand its HMSTR token's utility beyond the game, with 60% of its 100 billion supply allocated to players via a September 2024 airdrop. The token's projected initial price range of $0.07–$0.10 hinges on sustained engagement, though monthly active users have since declined to 12 million according to data.

Notcoin (NOT) has a $2.2 billion market cap, bolstered by partnerships with Binance and OKX. Despite a 93% price drop from its 2024 peak, the game's narrative-driven expansions-such as the Lost Dogs collaboration-position it as a "Netflix of social, viral games" according to analysis. Meanwhile, Catizen (CATI) generated $25 million in revenue and reached 1 million paying users, though its token faces inflation risks due to unlocked supply.

Revenue models in the ecosystem are equally compelling. Developers earn through in-game economies, in-app purchases, and transaction fees, creating a 10–20x arbitrage per user according to reports. For example, TapSwap combines tapping mechanics with DeFi trading, educating users on yield farming while generating revenue for developers.

Challenges and Risks

Despite the optimism, key risks persist. User retention remains a hurdle: 53% of players engage for less than 15 minutes per session, and 50.6% reduce playtime post-airdrop. Tokenomics also face scrutiny. Hamster Kombat's airdrop strategy led to dissatisfaction over reward dilution, while Catizen's token inflation concerns could undermine long-term value according to analysis.

Regulatory uncertainty further clouds the outlook. TON's TVL dropped 79% from its July 2024 peak to November 2025, reflecting broader investor caution. However, the TON Foundation's $400 million funding round and institutional partnerships-such as Tether's USDT integration-signal resilience according to reports.

Investment Thesis: Balancing Growth and Caution

For investors, the Telegram P2E ecosystem offers a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Hamster Kombat and Notcoin are positioned to benefit from TON's 18 billion market cap and growing institutional interest, while Catizen's focus on mini-games and Layer 2 infrastructure could drive demand for CATI according to forecasts.

However, success depends on addressing retention and tokenomics. Games that prioritize daily engagement (e.g., BlumCrypto's environmental tasks) and referral virality (e.g., Rocky Rabbit's 30 million users) are better positioned to sustain growth. Additionally, projects integrating DeFi and NFTs-like TapSwap-may unlock deeper utility for tokens according to analysis.

Conclusion

Telegram's P2E ecosystem is a testament to the power of viral design and blockchain accessibility. While challenges like retention and regulatory scrutiny persist, the sector's scalability, financial innovation, and user base make it a compelling investment opportunity. For those willing to navigate the volatility, the next 12–24 months could see TON-based tokens like NOT, HMSTR, and CATI cement their roles in the broader crypto landscape.