Teck Resources (TECK) Falls 3.16% on Bearish Candlestick, Testing Critical Support at 49.72 Amid Technical Confluence

Candlestick Theory
Teck Resources (TECK) recently closed at 49.72, down 3.16%, forming a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow. Over the past year, key support levels emerge around 47.73–48.03, where price has repeatedly found buying interest after declines, while resistance is clustered near 50.275–51.34, reflecting prior peaks. A bearish engulfing pattern on January 7, 2026, and a potential harami on January 6 suggest short-term bearish momentum. However, the lack of consistent lower lows below 47.73 implies a possible support test at this level.

Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (approximately 45.0–46.0) and 200-day MA (43.0–44.0) indicate a bullish long-term trend, as the price remains above both. The 100-day MA (44.5–45.5) aligns with the 50-day, reinforcing the upward bias. However, the recent pullback has brought the 50-day MA closer to the 200-day, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. A break below the 50-day MA would signal short-term weakness, while a retest of the 100-day MA could trigger renewed buying.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has contracted, with the line crossing below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The KDJ indicator (stochastic oscillator) shows the %K line at 15–20, indicating oversold conditions, though divergence between %K and price action (lower lows in price but higher lows in %K) suggests weakening bearish pressure. A bullish crossover in the KDJ is likely if the 50-day MA holds.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the recent low of 48.86 touching the lower Bollinger Band. This contraction-to-expansion pattern suggests a potential reversal, as price near the lower band historically precedes rebounds. The 20-day standard deviation of ~1.5 indicates moderate volatility, with the upper band at ~51.5–52.0. A break above this could signal renewed bullish momentum.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume on January 7 (3.99 million shares) surged compared to prior sessions, validating the bearish move. However, volume has declined in subsequent sessions, suggesting waning bearish conviction. A surge in volume during a rebound above 49.72 would strengthen the case for a short-term bottom.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI is in the 25–30 range, indicating oversold conditions. While this may suggest a near-term rebound, RSI divergences (price making new lows without RSI confirmation) caution against immediate bullish bets. A close above 40–45 would signal a shift in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 52.24 to the low of 47.73, key retracement levels at 50.275 (38.2%), 49.72 (50%), and 48.86 (61.8%) align with recent price action. The current close at 49.72 coincides with the 50% retracement level, a critical psychological threshold. A break below 48.86 would target the 61.8% level at 47.73, while a rebound above 50.275 could reinvigorate the bullish trend.

Confluence and Divergences

Confluence emerges at 49.72–50.275, where the 50-day MA, Fibonacci 50% level, and Bollinger Band convergence suggest a high-probability area for a reversal. Divergence between the MACD histogram and price action (declining price with narrowing MACD) hints at exhausted bearish momentum. However, the KDJ’s oversold reading and RSI’s 30 threshold provide conflicting signals, necessitating a wait for a confirmed breakout or reversal candlestick before taking directional bets.