TechnipFMC (FTI) Soars on Subsea Strength: A Bullish Outlook for 2025 and Beyond

The energy sector’s recovery has been uneven, but one name stands out as a clear beneficiary of renewed demand for offshore exploration and production: TechnipFMC (FTI). Analysts are rallying behind this engineering giant, fueled by its dominance in the subsea market, robust financial performance, and a backlog of projects signaling sustained growth. Let’s dissect why FTI is primed for a breakout in 2025—and whether the stock can hit its ambitious $43 price target.

The Analyst Consensus: A Strong Buy with Upside Galore

TechnipFMC has become a favorite among Wall Street analysts, with a Strong Buy consensus rating derived from 10 Buy ratings, 1 Hold, and no Sell ratings. The average 12-month price target of $36.10 represents a 44% upside from its current price of $25.03, with the highest target set at $43.00 by Jefferies’ Mark Wilson. Notably, Buy ratings have surged from 14 to 16 in the past month, underscoring growing confidence in FTI’s trajectory.

Why Subsea Is the Engine of Growth

The subsea division is the linchpin of FTI’s success. In Q4 2024, subsea revenue surged 19% year-over-year to $2.0 billion, driven by projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Africa. Orders hit $2.7 billion in the quarter—up 10% sequentially—and full-year 2024 orders totaled $10.4 billion, a 7% increase over 2023. This momentum has built a record backlog, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.3x for 2024, marking the fourth straight year above 1.0x.

Analysts like BTIG’s Gregory Lewis highlight this performance, noting that FTI’s subsea division is “the best leveraged to the offshore recovery cycle.” With global energy majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron ramping up deepwater projects, FTI’s technical expertise in subsea production systems and umbilicals positions it to capture market share.

Financials: Margin Expansion and EBITDA Beating Estimates

FTI’s Q4 results also delivered a strong earnings beat, with adjusted EBITDA of $351 million, exceeding consensus by $4 million. The company’s focus on operational efficiency is paying off: analysts project 29% annual EPS growth over the next three years, rising from $1.38 in 2024 to $2.42 by 2026. Revenue is expected to grow at an 8% annual clip, reaching $10.8 billion by 2026.

Even more compelling is the ROE forecast: FTI’s return on equity is projected to hit 38.8% in four years, outpacing the energy sector’s average of 31.6%. This suggests the company is becoming more capital-efficient, a critical trait in an industry where capital intensity can stifle returns.

Risks and Skepticism: Where Could This Go Wrong?

No investment is without risks. The lowest analyst target of $29.00 reflects concerns about execution in key markets like Asia-Pacific, where FTI has faced project delays. Additionally, macroeconomic headwinds—such as a slowdown in energy demand or commodity price volatility—could pressure margins.

Analysts like Benchmark’s Kurt Hallead, who maintain a Hold rating, argue that FTI’s valuation is already pricing in significant upside. However, with the stock currently trading at $27.50—below all analyst targets—the Street seems to believe operational execution will outweigh near-term risks.

Conclusion: FTI’s Case for a $36 Target—and Beyond

TechnipFMC’s story is clear: subsea dominance, record backlogs, and margin expansion make it a top pick in the energy services space. The $36.10 consensus target is achievable if FTI continues its Q4 momentum, but the $43.00 upside case hinges on two factors:
1. Geographic diversification: Reducing reliance on volatile regions like APAC through new contracts in the U.S. or Europe.
2. Margin expansion: Achieving the projected EBITDA growth of $351 million in 2024 to $450 million by 2026, as outlined by Jefferies and BMO analysts.

With a 70% success rate for top-performing analysts over the past year and a stock price currently undervalued relative to its targets, FTI presents a compelling risk-reward trade. While risks exist, the data suggests the bulls have the edge here. For investors seeking exposure to the offshore energy rebound, TechnipFMC’s Strong Buy rating and subsea tailwind make it a no-brainer—especially if oil prices stabilize above $80 per barrel.

In short, FTI isn’t just keeping up with the recovery—it’s leading it. The question now is: Can the stock finally break through to its $43 potential? The numbers say yes.