Technical Outlook: XRP Decline Persists as $2.00 Support Holds

Ripple (XRP) is trading at $2.06 on January 16, 2026, showing three consecutive days of declines. The token remains close to the $2.00 support level amid broad crypto market weakness. Bitcoin and Ethereum also face downward pressure, with the latter testing key support levels.

Exchange reserves for XRP have risen to 2.7 billion as of Thursday, up from 2.67 billion the previous week. This increase suggests holders are accumulating XRP for potential sales as the price rises. Analysts note that higher exchange reserves often indicate increased selling pressure.

XRP futures open interest has declined to $3.98 billion from $4.08 billion the day before. The open interest peaked at a yearly high of $4.55 billion on January 8, following a price increase to $2.42. Further declines in open interest could signal ongoing downward momentum.

Why Is XRP Facing Selling Pressure?

The rise in exchange reserves indicates that XRP holders are likely moving tokens to exchanges for potential sales. This pattern is often seen when holders expect price appreciation, as it signals an intent to sell on upward moves.

CryptoQuant data supports the view that increased exchange holdings can lead to higher selling activity. This dynamic may limit XRP's ability to recover in the short term and could pressure the token toward the $2.00 level.

How Are XRP ETFs Performing Amid the Decline?

Despite the price correction, XRP spot ETFs have seen steady inflows. On January 15, 2026, the ETFs recorded $17.06 million in inflows, pushing total assets under management to $1.51 billion. This level of institutional demand suggests continued confidence in XRP's long-term potential.

The inflows into XRP ETFs contrast with the broader price action, which has remained flat despite the accumulation. While the token dipped around 4% to $2.07 after the inflows, the ETF buying appears to be acting as a floor for the price.

What Do Technical Indicators Suggest for XRP's Near-Term Outlook?

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently stands at $2.08, limiting the immediate upside for XRP. This level acts as a key resistance point and reinforces a bearish bias in the near term.

The MACD has crossed below the signal line on the daily chart, with the histogram bars turning negative. This suggests downward momentum is building. A further decline in the RSI below the 50-level would add to the bearish outlook, increasing the risk of a breakdown below $2.00.

A breakout above the 50-day EMA at $2.08 could ease the immediate pressure and open the path to higher-moving averages at $2.20 and $2.32. Failure to reclaim these levels would likely keep the trajectory of XRP bearish for the time being.

What Are Analysts Monitoring for a Reversal?

Analysts are closely watching the interaction between XRP ETF inflows and broader market sentiment. The inflows, while supportive, have not yet driven the price higher, suggesting that broader crypto market conditions and macroeconomic factors will play a key role in XRP's next move.

The relative strength of the broader crypto market, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, will also be important. If the wider market stabilizes or recovers, this could provide the tailwind needed for XRP to break out of its current consolidation phase. Institutional confidence, as reflected in ETF flows, will remain a key indicator.

Market participants are also keeping an eye on Ripple's product developments, including the expansion of its cross-border payment network and its RLUSD stablecoin. These initiatives may enhance XRP's real-world utility and attract further institutional interest.

What's the Bottom Line for Investors?

XRP faces immediate bearish pressure as the token tests the $2.00 support level. Technical indicators suggest that the path of least resistance is downward, although institutional inflows into ETFs provide a potential floor for the price.

Investors should monitor both the broader market conditions and key technical levels such as the 50-day EMA. A sustained break below $2.00 could trigger further selling pressure, while a rebound above $2.08 may offer early signs of a reversal. For now, the focus remains on whether institutional demand can provide enough support to prevent a breakdown.