Technical Breakdown: TSM's Record Run, Lilly's FDA Pullback, and Coinbase's Neutral Stance

The tape is telling a clear story of diverging momentum. On one end, Taiwan Semiconductor is making new highs, while Eli Lilly faces a sharp pullback, and Coinbase is stuck in a technical holding pattern.

TSM is the standout performer, riding a wave of record earnings and insatiable AI demand. The stock is up 6.6% to trade at $348.64 today, extending its strong start to the year. Year-to-date, it's up 14.3%, with the move above the $310 resistance level setting up a powerful rally. The technical setup is bullish, with the 100-day moving average at $287 acting as a key support that has held through recent volatility. Options activity is intense, with call volume far outpacing puts, and the market pricing in low volatility expectations, suggesting traders see more room to run.

On the flip side, Eli Lilly is under immediate pressure. Shares are down nearly 4% after a Reuters report that the FDA will delay its decision on the company's obesity drug until April 10. This news breaks the stock's recent uptrend, which had seen it climb 23.68% over the past 50 days. The delay introduces significant uncertainty, and the stock is now testing key moving averages, with the 20-day at $1,071.43 and the 100-day at $908.64. The technical rating shows the stock is oversold on short-term oscillators, but the fundamental catalyst is a clear negative.

Coinbase is caught in the middle. The platform slid 3% after CEO Brian Armstrong pulled the company's support for a key Senate crypto bill. The technical picture reflects this indecision. While the stock has held above its 50-day moving average, the overall technical rating is a sell for the short term, with a neutral signal on a longer timeframe. This suggests the market is digesting the policy setback, and the stock lacks a clear directional bias for now.

The immediate signals are set. TSM's breakout above resistance is the buy signal. Lilly's drop on the FDA delay is the sell trigger. Coinbase's neutral rating means traders are waiting for the next catalyst to break the stalemate.

Supply/Demand Mechanics: Levels, Volume, and Trend Integrity

The structural health of TSM's rally hinges on three key technical elements: a critical support level, a specific options strike signaling a potential trap, and the volume on any pullback. The tape is showing both strength and early warning signs.

First, the demand side is intact, but the support is getting tested. The stock's powerful move above the $310 resistance has been sustained, with the 100-day moving average at $287 acting as a crucial floor. This level held firm in November and December, and the recent pullback to around $327 still leaves a wide cushion above it. However, the volume on that recent dip is a red flag. On Wednesday, volume increased on falling prices, which is a classic sign of distribution-smart money selling into strength. This suggests the buying momentum may be weakening, and the stock is now in a vulnerable position just below the $327.43 resistance from accumulated volume.

Second, the options flow reveals a clear "buy the rumor, sell the news" setup. The most popular contract is the January 15, 2026 350-strike call. This is a high strike price, indicating traders are positioning for a significant further move higher. Yet, with the stock trading around $348, that strike is already in the money. The fact that it's the most active contract suggests a lot of speculative call buying is happening right now, potentially at the top of the range. This creates a technical overhang; if the stock fails to push decisively above $350, those long calls could get caught in a squeeze, leading to a sharp reversal.

Finally, the trend's integrity depends on what happens at the next key level. The immediate support is at the $325.41 moving average line. A break below that would signal the short-term uptrend is cracking. More critically, a break below the $287 100-day MA would be a major bearish signal, invalidating the primary support structure and likely triggering a deeper correction toward the next volume cluster at $284.68. For now, the tape shows a stock that is strong but stretched, with volume on weakness and options positioning for a final push. The supply/demand balance is tipping, and the next move will test where the real buyers are.

Catalysts and What to Watch: Confirming the Setup

The near-term path for these three stocks hinges on specific events and clear technical levels. Traders need to watch for confirmation signals that validate or break the current tape.

For Taiwan Semiconductor, the setup is a classic breakout. The key level to watch is $350. A decisive move above that resistance targets the next major psychological and volume cluster. Failure to hold above $348 is the immediate red flag. That level is the current price and sits just below the critical $348.64 high from earlier today. A break below it would signal the rally is losing momentum and could trigger a swift retest of the $327.43 resistance and the $325.41 moving average support. The options flow at the $350 strike is a major overhang; if the stock stalls there, it could set up a violent reversal.

Eli Lilly is waiting on a binary event. The new catalyst is the FDA decision date of April 10. That's the date that will remove the overhang and likely spark the next leg in the stock's trajectory. For now, the technical signal is a bounce from oversold conditions. The key level to watch is the 5-day moving average at $1,074.82. A sustained move above that level would confirm the recent drop is a temporary pullback within the longer-term uptrend. A break below it, however, would invalidate the short-term bullish setup and could lead to a deeper test of the 20-day MA at $1,071.43 and the 100-day MA at $908.64.

Coinbase is in a holding pattern, and the next catalyst will be policy. The company's neutral technical rating means the market is waiting for news. Traders should watch for any shift in sentiment around the Senate bill or broader regulatory developments. The stock's ability to hold above its 50-day moving average will be the primary technical support. A break below that level would likely confirm the recent slide and open the door to a test of the $284.68 volume cluster. Until then, the tape offers no clear directional signal.