Tech Stocks: How AI and Trade Deals Are Fueling the Next Bull Run

The markets are in a holding pattern, with fears of a recession and Fed rate hikes keeping investors on edge. But in the tech sector, a quiet revolution is brewing—one fueled by artificial intelligence, strategic trade deals, and geopolitical realignments. For investors, this is no time to retreat; it's time to double down on AI-driven tech leaders that are turning macroeconomic headwinds into opportunities.

Let's start with the big picture: The U.S.-Vietnam trade deal finalized in July 2025 and the U.S.-China framework agreement on rare earths and tech restrictions have done more than just cool tensions. These deals are reshaping global supply chains, reducing the risk of trade wars, and creating golden opportunities for companies at the intersection of AI and manufacturing.

The Trade Deal Boost: Geopolitical Risk Reduction = Tech Confidence
The U.S. and Vietnam's agreement isn't just about tariffs—it's about securing supply chains for the future. By capping tariffs on Vietnamese exports at 20% (down from 46%) and targeting Chinese transshipments with a 40% tariff, the U.S. is pushing Vietnam to diversify its tech partnerships. This isn't just good for Boeing (which just won a $6 billion deal to supply Vietnam Airlines with 50 737 MAX jets)—it's a win for semiconductor and AI firms that rely on Southeast Asia's manufacturing hubs.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-China deal on rare earths and tech exports, while far from perfect, has temporarily halted a slide toward a full-blown trade war. By easing restrictions on rare earth shipments and reciprocal tech exports, both sides have given AI chipmakers and software giants the breathing room they need to innovate.

AI: The Force Multiplier in Tech's Next Growth Surge
The real magic here is artificial intelligence. Vietnam's new agreements with China include joint ventures in AI, green energy, and 5G—sectors where U.S. companies like NVIDIA (NVDA) are already dominant. Consider this: Vietnam's imports of Chinese telecom equipment and semiconductors hit $34.59 billion in 2024. But with U.S. firms now gaining a foothold, Vietnam's tech ecosystem is becoming a launchpad for AI adoption in industries from manufacturing to healthcare.

The long-term bet here is on companies that can leverage these partnerships. NVIDIA's AI chips, for instance, are powering everything from self-driving cars to cloud-based AI models. The stock has already rallied 60% since late 2023, but this is just the beginning.

The China Play: U.S.-Listed AI Chipmakers Are Winning
Don't write off Chinese tech firms just yet. While the U.S. and China are still at odds on broader trade issues, the AI race is a game both sides want to win. Companies like Ample Technology (AMPL) and Sensetime (though not yet listed in the U.S.) are pioneers in facial recognition and autonomous driving. For U.S. investors, the key is to focus on China-based AI firms listed on American exchanges, which benefit from both China's scale and U.S. capital markets.

Navigating the Near-Term Risks
Of course, there are speed bumps. The U.S. court challenges to Trump's “reciprocal tariffs” could destabilize trade deals, and Vietnam's balancing act between the U.S. and China remains precarious. Add in the Fed's rate hikes, and you've got a recipe for volatility.

But here's the key: AI isn't just a sector—it's an era. Companies that master AI will dominate markets for decades. The trade deals are just accelerating this trend by smoothing supply chains and forcing rivals to collaborate.

Action Alert: Buy the Dip on AI Leaders
Here's my advice:
1. Go heavy on NVIDIA (NVDA). Its AI chip dominance is unmatched, and its partnerships with Vietnam's manufacturing sector are just getting started.
2. Add U.S.-listed Chinese AI firms like Ample Technology (AMPL) for exposure to China's innovation without the regulatory risk of direct exposure to the mainland.
3. Avoid overpaying—wait for dips caused by macro fears. AI stocks are volatile, but the long-term trajectory is skyward.

The economy may be slowing, but the AI revolution is just heating up. These stocks aren't just bets on tech—they're bets on the future of work, transportation, and global trade.

Final Take: Tech is the new gold. Dig in now.