Tech Earnings and Tariffs Spark Volatility in April 2025 Pre-Market Trading

The pre-market session on April 22, 2025, underscored the precarious balance between optimism over tech earnings and growing anxiety over geopolitical tensions. With President Trump’s tariff threats and China’s retaliatory warnings dominating headlines, investors faced a market caught between high-stakes corporate results and macroeconomic risks. Here’s a deep dive into the forces shaping this critical week.

Ask Aime: What impact does President Trump's tariff threats and China's retaliatory warnings have on the tech sector and the overall market?

Pre-Market Volatility: Winners, Losers, and the Stories Behind the Swings

The pre-market session began with dramatic swings, reflecting a market divided between sector-specific optimism and broader uncertainty.

Top Gainers: Speculation and Catalysts

• SHF Holdings (SHFS) surged 102.34% to $4.33 pre-market, the largest jump among active stocks, on unconfirmed rumors of a breakthrough in its AI-powered logistics platform.
• Aptevo Therapeutics (APVO) rose 50.83% amid speculation about a potential partnership with a major pharmaceutical firm.
• Liberty Global B (LBTYB) spiked 59.94%, possibly linked to investor optimism about its streaming services amid rising demand for digital content.

Top Losers: Regulatory Headwinds and Sector-Specific Risks

• Akso Health (AHG) plummeted 59.98% after delayed FDA approval for its diabetes drug.
• Thunder Power (AIEV) dropped 50% following reports of supply chain disruptions in its electric vehicle battery division.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) fell 3.26% to $98.18, as fears over U.S.-China trade restrictions and Huawei’s AI chip ambitions pressured the GPU leader.

Tech Earnings: The Week That Could Define Q1 2025

The earnings season for tech giants began in earnest, with Tesla (TSLA) kicking things off on April 22 and Alphabet (GOOGL) following on April 24. Analysts are watching for signs of demand resilience amid rising interest rates and trade tensions.

Key Reports to Watch

1. Tesla (TSLA): Investors will scrutinize its China sales growth and battery cost reductions, with estimates pointing to a 5% year-over-year revenue decline due to pricing wars.
2. Alphabet (GOOGL): The company’s cloud and AI initiatives could offset weak ad revenue, though geopolitical risks may weigh on its Chinese operations.
3. Microsoft (MSFT): Set to report on April 25, its Azure cloud growth and enterprise AI adoption will be critical metrics.

The Bigger Picture: S&P 500 Earnings Growth

The S&P 500 is projected to show a 7.3% year-over-year earnings rise for Q1 2025, marking seven straight quarters of growth. However, tech’s exposure to global supply chains and trade wars could cap optimism.

Geopolitical Risks: Tariffs, Trade, and Tech’s Fragile Edge

President Trump’s tariff threats and China’s retaliatory stance have created a “no-win” scenario for tech firms.

• NVIDIA’s Dilemma: Huawei’s planned mass shipment of 910C AI chips—designed to rival NVIDIA’s A100—could erode its market share in China. Analysts warn this could cost NVIDIA $1.5 billion in annual revenue by 2026.
• Boeing’s Supply Chain Woes: A shortage of nuts and bolts for its 737 MAX fleet highlights lingering manufacturing vulnerabilities, which could spill over into aerospace stocks like GE Aerospace (GE).

Analyst Insights and Investor Takeaways

• Wedbush’s Tesla Warning: Analyst Dan Ives labeled Tesla’s situation a “code red,” citing intense competition from Rivian and Ford’s electric vehicles.
• Morgan Stanley’s Tariff Outlook: The firm warned that reciprocal tariffs could shave 0.5-1% off S&P 500 earnings in 2025, with tech and industrials hardest hit.

Conclusion: Navigating the Crosscurrents

The April 2025 earnings season has begun with a bang, but investors must remain cautious. While tech firms like Microsoft and Alphabet may deliver solid results, their exposure to trade wars and supply chain risks complicates the outlook.

Key data points to remember:
- The S&P 500’s 7.3% earnings growth projection hinges on tech outperforming expectations.
- Over 100 S&P 500 companies will report this week, with Tesla and Alphabet’s results acting as litmus tests for sector resilience.
- Geopolitical risks, including Trump’s trade policies and Fed uncertainty, remain unresolved.

For now, investors should prioritize companies with diversified supply chains (e.g., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)) and defensive tech stocks like cybersecurity firms. The market’s volatility underscores a simple truth: in 2025, earnings matter—but so does who controls the tariffs.

Stay vigilant.