TD Cowen: Probability of Crypto Market Structure Bill Passing This Year Only One in Three

What Are the Key Sticking Points?

The bill remains deadlocked over unresolved issues, including community bank deregulation and DeFi treatment. While a stablecoin yield resolution appears near, broader regulatory alignment remains elusive.

Senator Mark Warner has revised his optimism, now estimating a 50%–60% chance of passage. However, significant pressure before the August recess is still required for a Senate vote.

How Do Market Reactions Reflect This Stalemate?

Digital asset treasury companies have already seen a market selloff due to regulatory uncertainty, as investors shift capital toward Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's statutory recognition as a commodity could reinforce its market position if the bill passes. Analysts from JPMorgan and Polymarket expect a potential midyear passage as a catalyst for further capital shifts.

What Are the Long-Term Implications?

Charles Hoskinson criticizes the CLARITY Act as overly complex and politically biased, warning it could be weaponized by future administrations. He predicts the legislation may take years to implement and entrench advantages for established tokens.

Anthony Scaramucci remains bullish on Bitcoin despite the short-term uncertainty. He compares its potential to the iPhone's trajectory and forecasts a long-term price target of $1 million.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse emphasizes the need for codified reforms to ensure consistency across political cycles. He remains optimistic about the bill's eventual passage, given its potential to provide clarity for banks and investors.