Taseko Mines (TGB) Surges 11.35% on Operational Breakthrough and Copper Market Frenzy

Summary
• Taseko Mines (TGB) rockets 11.35% intraday to $7.26, hitting its 52-week high of $7.28.
• Florence Copper project transitions to operations, with SX/EW plant startup imminent.
• Copper futures surge to $6.05/lb as global supply tightness and AI-driven demand fuel speculation.
• Turnover spikes to 9.89M shares, reflecting aggressive buying amid sector-wide momentum.

Taseko Mines’ stock has erupted on the back of a pivotal operational milestone at its Florence Copper project and a broader commodities rally. With copper prices at record highs and speculative flows intensifying, TGB’s 11.35% surge reflects both company-specific catalysts and macroeconomic tailwinds. The stock’s intraday range from $6.585 to $7.28 underscores the market’s bullish conviction.

Florence Copper Operationalization and Copper Market Volatility Drive TGB’s Surge
Taseko Mines’ stock erupted on news that its Florence Copper project in Arizona has completed construction and initiated acidification processes, with copper cathode production expected within weeks. This marks a critical inflection point for the asset, which will transition from capital expenditure to revenue generation. Simultaneously, the company reported robust Q4 performance at its Gibraltar mine, including 98M lbs of copper production despite operational hiccups. On the macro front, copper futures hit $6.05/lb as U.S. tariff fears, South American supply disruptions, and AI-driven demand created a perfect storm. TGB’s 11.35% move mirrors the broader copper sector’s surge, with speculative funds and physical buyers scrambling to secure exposure.

Copper Sector Rally Intensifies as Taseko Outpaces Peers
The copper sector is experiencing a synchronized rally, with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) up 1.96% and peers like Codelco and Glencore seeing elevated volumes. However, Taseko’s 11.35% surge far outpaces sector averages, driven by its dual catalysts: near-term production ramp-up at Florence and a strong Q4 performance at Gibraltar. While FCX and others face near-term production constraints, Taseko’s operational progress and clear timeline for cash flow generation position it as a high-conviction play in a sector where supply deficits are tightening rapidly.

Options and ETF Playbook: Capitalizing on TGB’s Volatility and Copper’s Structural Tailwinds
• RSI: 74.63 (overbought), MACD: 0.317 (bullish), 200D MA: $3.58 (far below price).
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $7.26 (above upper band of $6.46), signaling extreme volatility.
• Gamma: 0.2405 (high sensitivity to price moves), Theta: -0.01005 (moderate time decay).

TGB’s technicals scream short-term momentum, with RSI in overbought territory and MACD confirming bullish momentum. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA by 105%, suggesting a breakaway move. For aggressive bulls, the TGB20260220C8 call option (strike $8, expiration 2/20/2026) offers 263.64% leverage and a 2.6% theta decay, ideal for a 5% upside scenario. A 5% move to $7.62 would yield a payoff of $0.62 per contract. The TGB20260220C7 (strike $7, 137.50% leverage) is a safer play, with a 9.54% leverage ratio and 11.92% gamma, offering 37.50% profit potential on a $7.50 target. Both options benefit from elevated implied volatility (67.23% and 66.74%) and high turnover (13,150 and 26,275 shares).

Aggressive bulls should consider TGB20260220C8 into a bounce above $7.50. The contract’s high gamma and leverage make it ideal for a continuation of the current momentum. For a more conservative approach, TGB20260220C7 offers a balanced risk-reward profile with strong liquidity.

Backtest Taseko Mines Stock Performance
The backtest of TGB's performance after a 11% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 52.27%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.78%, and the 30-Day win rate is 60.04%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 8.96%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that TGB can deliver decent gains even after the intraday surge.

TGB’s Breakout: A High-Velocity Trade in a Copper-Centric World
Taseko Mines’ 11.35% surge is a masterclass in operational execution and macro alignment. With Florence Copper on the cusp of production and copper prices at record highs, the stock is positioned to outperform in a sector where supply deficits are tightening. Short-term traders should monitor the $7.28 52-week high and key support at $6.585, while options players can leverage high-gamma contracts like TGB20260220C8 for aggressive upside. The broader copper sector, led by FCX’s 1.96% gain, remains a critical barometer—watch for further tariff-driven volatility and AI demand acceleration. Act now: Buy TGB20260220C8 if $7.50 breaks, or short-term cash flow plays if $6.585 holds.