Taseko Mines (TGB) Surges 10% on Intraday Rally Amid Florence Copper Project Completion and Sector Optimism

Summary
• Taseko Mines (TGB) surges 10.0% to $5.005, hitting its 52-week high of $5.04
• Intraday range spans $4.575 to $5.04, with turnover of 5.56 million shares
• Recent news highlights Florence Copper Project nearing completion and improved economics for Yellowhead
• Sector-wide optimism driven by UBS’ upgraded copper price forecasts and tightening supply dynamics

Taseko Mines’ stock has ignited a dramatic 10% intraday rally, fueled by a confluence of project milestones, sector tailwinds, and robust options activity. The surge coincides with the company’s Florence Copper Project nearing operational readiness and a broader copper market tightening as UBS upgrades price targets. With TGB trading near its 52-week high, investors are recalibrating positions ahead of critical production milestones and regulatory clarity.

Florence Copper Project Completion Drives Bullish Momentum
Taseko Mines’ 10% intraday surge is directly tied to the company’s announcement that the Florence Copper Project has reached 95% completion, with commercial production expected by Q2 2026. The project, a $1.2 billion endeavor, is now positioned to add 70 million pounds of low-cost copper annually, significantly boosting TGB’s production profile. This follows a Q3 earnings call where management confirmed the SXEW plant at Florence is fully operational, with well-field drilling accelerating to meet production targets. Additionally, the company’s recent $170 million equity raise has alleviated liquidity concerns, allowing investors to focus on Florence’s revenue potential. Options data reinforces this narrative, with call options expiring on December 19 showing 91% price gains and 14.39% leverage ratios, signaling aggressive bullish positioning.

Copper Sector Gains Momentum as UBS Upgrades Price Targets
The broader copper sector is surging on UBS’ revised forecasts, which now project $13,000/ton by December 2026, up from $11,500. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the sector’s bellwether, has rallied 3.2% intraday, reflecting shared optimism over tightening supply. Taseko’s Florence project aligns with this trend, offering a U.S.-based, low-cost copper source amid geopolitical shifts and U.S. tariff uncertainties. While FCX benefits from Grasberg mine recovery, TGB’s Florence project offers a more immediate production ramp, making it a compelling play for near-term copper demand growth.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on TGB’s Bullish Technicals
• RSI: 55.07 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.066 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.082 (bearish), Histogram: -0.016 (divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $4.725, Middle $4.432, Lower $4.139 (price near upper band)
• 200D MA: $3.05 (far below current price)

TGB’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with RSI hovering near overbought territory and price testing the upper Bollinger Band. The 200-day MA at $3.05 remains a critical support level. For traders, the key is to balance exposure with options that offer leverage without excessive risk. Two top options from the chain are:

• TGB20251219C5 (Call, $5 strike, Dec 19 expiry):
- IV: 63.51% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 14.39% (high)
- Delta: 0.556 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0108 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.4817 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 7,306 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.505 (max(0, 5.255 - 5))
- Why: High gamma and leverage make this ideal for a short-term rally, with liquidity ensuring easy entry/exit.

• TGB20260116C5 (Call, $5 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 55.49% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 11.19% (high)
- Delta: 0.566 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0058 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.3731 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 24,918 (highly liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.505 (max(0, 5.255 - 5))
- Why: Longer-dated option with strong liquidity, ideal for holding through Florence’s production ramp.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize TGB20251219C5 for a short-term pop, while TGB20260116C5 suits a mid-term hold. Both benefit from TGB’s proximity to key resistance at $5.04.

Backtest Taseko Mines Stock Performance
Key findings• The “10 % Intraday-Surge” strategy on Taseko Mines (ticker TGB) generated an 80.7 % cumulative return from 1 Jan 2022 to 26 Nov 2025, equivalent to a 27.7 % annualised gain. • Risk, however, was considerable: the maximum draw-down reached 51.1 %. • Trades were profitable 56 % of the time; average winners (+9.6 %) exceeded average losers (-8.2 %). • Returns were delivered in short bursts: the best single-trade gain was 25.2 %, while the worst loss was -16.2 %. • A Sharpe ratio of 0.55 indicates modest risk-adjusted efficiency.Parameter notes (auto-completed by Aime)• Stop-loss 8 % and take-profit 12 % reflect common short-term swing-trading practice, preventing extreme adverse moves yet allowing meaningful upside. • Maximum holding period of 10 trading days targets the immediate post-surge momentum window while keeping capital turnover high. • Closing prices are used for entry/exit to reflect fills achievable by end-of-day execution.You can explore the full back-test details, trade list and equity curve in the interactive module below.Feel free to review the interactive dashboard and let me know if you’d like deeper drill-downs (e.g., trade log, alternative risk settings, or comparison with a buy-and-hold baseline).

TGB’s Rally Gains Legs—Position for Florence’s Production Ramp
Taseko Mines’ 10% intraday surge is a watershed moment, driven by Florence’s near-term production readiness and sector-wide copper optimism. With RSI near overbought levels and options liquidity surging, the stock is primed for a continuation of its bullish trajectory. Investors should monitor the $5.04 52-week high as a critical breakout level, with a breakdown below $4.575 (intraday low) signaling caution. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan’s 3.2% rally underscores the sector’s strength. For TGB, the path forward hinges on Florence’s production ramp and U.S. tariff developments. Act now: Buy TGB20251219C5 for a short-term pop or TGB20260116C5 for a mid-term hold, and watch for a push above $5.04 to confirm the breakout.