Taseko Mines: A Strategic Turnaround with Florence Copper and New Prosperity Agreement Driving 50%+ NPV Upside

The copper market is in a structural bull phase, driven by the electrification revolution and the urgent need for decarbonization. In this environment, Taseko Mines (TSE: TKO) has emerged as a standout story, leveraging its Florence Copper project and the New Prosperity agreement to unlock a 50%+ net present value (NPV) upside. Let's break down why this Canadian miner is poised to become a top-tier copper play.

Florence Copper: A Game-Changer in Near-Term Production

Taseko's Florence Copper project in Arizona is no longer a speculative bet—it's a near-term cash-flow generator. As of June 2025, the project is over 90% complete, with first copper cathode production on track for Q4 2025. This timeline is critical: the U.S. is facing potential 50% tariffs on imported copper, and Florence will supply 85 million pounds of LME Grade A copper annually at costs among the lowest quartile globally.

The project's environmental credentials are equally compelling. Using in-situ recovery (ISCR) and solvent extraction/electrowinning (SX/EW), Florence produces copper with 75% fewer GHG emissions, 65% less energy use, and 78% less water consumption compared to traditional open-pit mines. In a world where ESG metrics are reshaping capital allocation, this gives Taseko a competitive edge.

With copper prices trading near $4.50 per pound (up from $3.25 in early 2023), Florence's economics are even more attractive. The project's $930 million NPV (at $3.75/lb and 8% discount rate) is a conservative estimate, given the current price trajectory. Once operational, Florence will generate $150–200 million in annual EBITDA, directly boosting Taseko's cash flow and reducing its reliance on long-term projects like Yellowhead.

New Prosperity Agreement: A Legal and Strategic Win

The New Prosperity agreement, finalized in June 2025, is a watershed moment for Taseko. This deal with the Tŝilhqot'in Nation and the Province of British Columbia resolves a decade-long legal dispute over the New Prosperity copper-gold deposit, unlocking $75 million in immediate liquidity and removing a 20–30% litigation risk premium from Taseko's valuation.

More importantly, the agreement establishes a consent-based framework for future development. Taseko retains a 77.5% interest in the project, while the Tŝilhqot'in Nation holds a 22.5% trust stake. This structure ensures alignment between Taseko and the Indigenous community, reducing the risk of delays or opposition. The project's 5.3 billion pounds of copper and 13.3 million ounces of gold could become a cornerstone of Taseko's long-term growth if permits are secured by 2027–2028.

NPV Upside and Strategic Positioning

Taseko's current enterprise value is anchored by its Yellowhead project, which has an $2.0 billion NPV (8% discount rate) and 21% IRR. But the real magic lies in the synergy between Florence and New Prosperity.

• Florence adds $930 million in near-term NPV and de-risks the company's balance sheet.
• New Prosperity removes litigation overhang and opens a $1.5–2.0 billion NPV pathway if the project advances.
• Combined, these initiatives could add $2.5–3.0 billion in NPV, representing a 50%+ upside to Taseko's current valuation.

Taseko's stock currently trades at a 40% discount to its peers on a net asset value (NAV) basis, reflecting lingering uncertainties. But with Florence's production imminent and New Prosperity's risks resolved, this discount is unsustainable.

Why This Is a Buy

1. Copper Market Tailwinds: Global demand is set to outstrip supply for the next decade, with prices likely to remain above $4.00/lb.
2. Operational Execution: Florence's on-time, on-budget progress demonstrates Taseko's ability to execute.
3. ESG Alignment: The company's low-impact production methods and Indigenous partnerships position it as a leader in sustainable mining.
4. Upside Potential: At $4.50/lb copper, Florence's NPV jumps to $1.2 billion, while New Prosperity's potential adds another $1.5 billion if permits are secured.

Risks to Consider

• Copper Price Volatility: A sharp drop below $3.50/lb could pressure margins.
• Permitting Delays: New Prosperity's development hinges on Tŝilhqot'in consent and regulatory approvals.
• Capital Constraints: Yellowhead's $2.0 billion capex requires financing, though the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit could offset 30% of costs.

Final Call

Taseko Mines is no longer a speculative junior—it's a blue-chip copper producer in the making. The Florence project's near-term production and the New Prosperity agreement's risk resolution create a compelling value proposition in a market starved for supply. For investors seeking exposure to the electrification megatrend, Taseko offers a rare combination of near-term cash flow, long-term growth, and ESG credibility.

Buy Taseko (TKO) now—before the market fully prices in its transformation.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.