Tarsus Soars 13.06%—Can This Biotech Breakthrough Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• Tarsus (TARS) surges 13.06% to $47.08, hitting an intraday high of $48.21 and low of $44.68
• Record Q2 net sales of $102.7 million driven by XDEMVY’s 152% YoY growth
• Direct-to-consumer campaign boosts prescriptions and ECP engagement
• Turnover spikes to 1.07 million shares, outpacing 2.79% turnover rate

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) has ignited a historic intraday rally, surging 13.06% to $47.08 amid record Q2 financial results and aggressive market expansion. The stock’s 13.06% surge—its largest single-day move in over a year—reflects a perfect storm of product momentum, strategic DTC execution, and investor optimism. With XDEMVY’s commercial success and pipeline advancements, the question looms: Is this a sustainable breakout or a short-term euphoria?

XDEMVY's Record Sales and DTC Campaign Fuel Tarsus's Surge
Tarsus’s 13.06% intraday surge is directly tied to its Q2 2025 earnings report, which revealed record net product sales of $102.7 million for XDEMVY—a 152% year-over-year increase. The DTC campaign has activated new patients, expanded prescriber networks, and driven prescription growth, with 91,000 bottles distributed in Q2 alone. Management emphasized XDEMVY’s position as the standard of care for Demodex blepharitis, with peak potential exceeding initial expectations. The stock’s rally reflects investor confidence in XDEMVY’s commercial execution and the company’s ability to scale its pipeline, including TP-04 for ocular rosacea and TP-05 for Lyme disease prevention.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Tarsus's Volatility with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• 200-day MA: $46.58 (above) • RSI: 51.01 (neutral) • MACD: -0.118 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: $39.07–$43.48 (below price)

Tarsus’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish breakout despite a long-term bearish trend. Key resistance lies at $46.29 (200D MA) and $57.28 (52W high). The 52.50% price change ratio in the TARS20250919C45 call option and 110% ratio in TARS20250919C45 highlight liquidity-driven momentum.

• TARS20250919C45 (Call): Strike $45, Expiry 2025-09-19, IV 45.57% (moderate), Leverage 11.21% (high), Delta 0.6546 (moderate sensitivity), Theta -0.0567 (aggressive time decay), Gamma 0.0495 (responsive to price swings), Turnover 3,070 (liquid). This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the 14% rally. A 5% upside to $49.87 would yield a $4.87 payoff (max(0, 49.87 - 45)).

• TARS20250919C50 (Call): Strike $50, Expiry 2025-09-19, IV 47.86% (moderate), Leverage 22.97% (high), Delta 0.4023 (moderate sensitivity), Theta -0.0506 (aggressive time decay), Gamma 0.0494 (responsive to price swings), Turnover 5,365 (liquid). This option provides higher leverage for a more aggressive play. A 5% upside would result in a $0 payoff (max(0, 49.87 - 50)), but its high gamma makes it suitable for a breakout above $50.

Aggressive bulls may consider TARS20250919C45 into a test of $48.21 (intraday high) or TARS20250919C50 for a breakout play.

Backtest Tarsus Stock Performance
The backtest of TARS ETF after an intraday percentage change greater than 13% shows favorable short-to-medium-term performance, with win rates and returns increasing across 3, 10, and 30 days. The maximum return during the backtest period was 7.51%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that there is potential for significant gains following the intraday surge.

Act Now: Tarsus's Momentum Presents High-Reward Opportunities
Tarsus’s 13.06% surge reflects a confluence of sector optimism and strategic positioning in ESG-driven infrastructure. While the 200-day MA ($46.58) and 52W high ($57.28) remain critical levels, the options chain suggests heightened volatility. Investors should monitor Schlumberger’s 0.1978% gain as a sector barometer. A sustained break above $48.21 could trigger a retest of $57.28, but a pullback to $44.68 (intraday low) would test conviction. Position now with TARS20250919C45 for a balanced play or TARS20250919C50 for aggressive upside. Watch for $46.29 (200D MA) breakdown or regulatory reaction.