Tariffs and Turbulence: Navigating the CEO Crisis Over Trump-Era Trade Policies

The escalating debate over Trump-era tariffs has taken a stark turn in 2025, with CEOs across industries sounding alarms about their far-reaching economic consequences. From Wall Street to Main Street, business leaders are grappling with inflation spikes, supply chain disruptions, and policy uncertainty that threaten to derail growth. The stakes could not be higher: the world’s largest economy is now at a crossroads, with CEOs urging policymakers to resolve the tariff imbroglio before lasting damage is done.

The CEO Consensus: Tariffs Are a Recipe for Recession

The chorus of CEO warnings has grown louder as tariffs on Chinese goods hit 145%, while global partners faced levies of 10–24%. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, once a cautious skeptic, now calls the policies a “straw on the camel’s back” for an already weakening economy. In his 2025 shareholder letter, he raised recession odds to 60%, citing tariff-driven inflation that has pushed one-year expectations to a 44-year high of 5.3% (University of Michigan Survey).

The market is already pricing in pain. shows a 10.5% plunge in the first week of April alone, with tech and industrials sectors hit hardest. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman’s grim assessment—“economic nuclear war”—echoes across boardrooms, as companies brace for higher input costs and delayed investments.

Sector-Specific Fallout: No Corner of the Economy is Safe

The tariff storm has left few industries unscathed:
- Manufacturing: Auto and machinery firms face 25% tariffs on non-USMCA imports, forcing reshoring that is “costly and slow,” according to a CNBC CEO survey. 45% of firms now doubt reshoring’s long-term benefits.
- Finance: New York’s financial sector—a $1.5 trillion engine—could lose 150,000 jobs by 2026 under a “deeper recession” scenario, with Wall Street profits down 55% (Moody’s Analytics).
- Tourism & Hospitality: Visa restrictions and retaliatory tariffs have dampened international travel, with NYC’s tourism-dependent jobs projected to drop 10% in a worst-case scenario.
- Technology: Stricter immigration policies risk a labor shortage in sectors reliant on global talent, with 140,000 NYC tech and academic jobs at risk from reduced H-1B visas.

Three Paths to 2028: Choose Wisely

The economic outlook hinges on how long tariffs persist:
1. No Recession (Optimistic): Tariff rollback by early 2026 → NYC jobs grow by 90,000 annually; inflation stabilizes.
2. Mild Recession (Baseline): Tariffs until 2026 → 71,200 NYC jobs lost peak-to-trough; S&P 500 drops 20%.
3. Deeper Recession (Pessimistic): Tariffs until 2027 → 149,300 NYC jobs lost; GDP plummets 2.6%.

A Call for Certainty—and Pragmatism

CEOs are united in demanding predictability. The pause-and-raise tariff tactics—e.g., the April 2–9 reversals—have eroded business planning, with 82% of companies anticipating “resurgent inflation” of 5–20% (CNBC survey). The solution? Policymakers must:
- Freeze tariff volatility: A 90-day pause with clear renegotiation terms, as Ackman proposed.
- Prioritize strategic allies: Why penalize Japan (24%) or the EU (20%) when China accounts for 78% of the U.S. trade deficit?
- Build fiscal buffers: NYC’s rainy-day fund needs $1.15 billion to cushion tariff-driven revenue shortfalls.

Conclusion: The Clock is Ticking

The data is unequivocal. Under the “deeper recession” path, the U.S. faces a 35% stock market collapse and $10 billion in lost NYC tax revenue—a disaster for households, businesses, and global markets. CEOs are right to warn that the costs of these tariffs far outweigh the benefits.

The Federal Reserve’s reluctance to ease policy in the face of 1981-style inflation only amplifies the danger. With 69% of CEOs predicting a recession and 37% planning layoffs, the window for a policy course correction is narrowing fast. The question is no longer whether tariffs are harmful—it’s whether leaders can act before the economy pays the price.

The path forward is clear: resolve trade disputes, restore predictability, and prioritize long-term growth over short-term political wins. The alternative is a recession fueled by choices that even Trump’s allies now call “colossally mistaken.”

Data sources: Moody’s Analytics, University of Michigan, NYC Comptroller’s Office.