U.S. Tariffs Spark 64% Drop in Imports, 49% Decline in Container Bookings
2min read The recent imposition of tariffs by the United States has led to a significant disruption in global trade, particularly affecting the country's import orders. Following the announcement of tariffs on April 2, there has been a noticeable freeze in trade activities, with a sharp decline in import orders. This trend is evident from the latest high-frequency data on container shipping bookings, which show a sudden halt in shipments from overseas to the United States due to the high tariffs.
The data indicates that while there was a surge in import orders during the first quarter, this trend has since reversed, with a collapse in orders observed. This phenomenon is not isolated but part of a broader trend of trade instability. The data from the cargo data company Vizion highlights that the "pre-order freeze" is widespread, with global trade disruptions becoming more pronounced.
The decline in pre-order quantities, which refer to the advance booking of transport capacity or container space by shippers, traders, or logistics companies with carriers, is particularly stark. After peaking in 2021, the pre-order quantities dropped sharply in 2022 and began to recover in 2023, only to face another decline in 2024. By March 2025, the pre-order quantities had dropped by 20% from their January peak, despite being 30% higher than the same period in 2024. This decline is attributed to shippers rushing to send goods before the anticipated tariff increases.
The data from March 24-31, 2025, compared to the subsequent week (April 1-8, 2025), shows a dramatic decrease in pre-order quantities. The total number of standard container bookings dropped by 49%, overall U.S. imports by 64%, and overall U.S. exports by 30%. This sharp decline coincides with two key events: the U.S. announcement of retaliatory tariffs on China and China's subsequent countermeasures. These tariff actions have led to a widespread freeze in shipping bookings, with shippers pausing their operations mid-cycle to reassess costs, timelines, and broader trade strategies.
The impact is most pronounced in categories such as apparel and accessories, wool, textiles, and manufactured goods, which are highly sensitive to cost increases, demand changes, and policy adjustments. These categories, which include many items subject to tariff adjustments, are particularly vulnerable to short-term uncertainties and price fluctuations. In the case of imports from China, the decline in pre-order quantities is most significant for basic manufacturing materials such as plastics, copper, and wood products, which are deeply integrated into industrial and manufacturing supply chains and now face substantial tariff pressures.
The analysis by Vizion underscores the significant uncertainty caused by tariffs. The clear signal is that shippers are acting preemptively to avoid tariffs, only to pause when conditions change. This behavior, visible in pre-order data weeks before goods arrive at ports, highlights the growing importance of forward-looking logistics intelligence. With other U.S. trading partners currently in a 90-day tariff suspension period, shippers are navigating a highly uncertain and rapidly changing trade environment. The remainder of 2025 is likely to see continued volatility, with demand fluctuations, accelerated order patterns, and global responses to these trade actions leading to a restructuring of procurement strategies.
