Tariffs Could Push Trans-Pacific Container Rates to 2024 Highs: Freightos

The trans-Pacific container shipping market is bracing for a potential surge in rates, as the interplay between tariffs, frontloading, and Lunar New Year demand could drive prices up to 2024 highs. According to Freightos, a leading global freight rate index provider, the combination of these factors is expected to significantly impact the market in both the short and long term.

Short-term impact:

1. Frontloading and Lunar New Year demand: Importers are rushing to ship goods before the Lunar New Year holiday, leading to a surge in demand. This rush is expected to push rates up or near the 2024 peak season July high of $8,000 per FEU to the West Coast (Levine, 2025).
2. Tariffs: The threat of tariff hikes under the incoming Trump administration is also driving importers to frontload shipments, further increasing demand and rates. For instance, U.S. importers rushed to bring in goods before new tariffs took effect during the U.S.-China trade war, causing a temporary surge in container freight rates on trans-Pacific routes (Drewry, 2025).

Long-term impact:

1. Sustained route adjustments: Prolonged tariffs can lead to sustained route adjustments and decreased demand on affected trade lanes, which pushes long-term contract rates lower. In contrast, routes in tariff-free regions may experience a consistent increase in demand and rates (Freightos, 2025).
2. Red Sea diversions: Security issues in the Red Sea are forcing vessels to divert around the region, resulting in longer transit times and fewer available ships. These diversions have significantly impacted Asia-Europe rates and will likely keep trans-Pacific rates above long-term averages (Freightos, 2025).



In conclusion, the combination of frontloading, Lunar New Year demand, and tariffs will drive trans-Pacific container rates up in the short term, potentially reaching or exceeding the 2024 peak season high. In the long term, sustained route adjustments and Red Sea diversions will keep rates elevated, with potential fluctuations depending on tariff policies and geopolitical risks. Shippers and logistics professionals must remain adaptable as they navigate this volatile market.