U.S. Tariffs Push India Closer to Russia and China Amid Trade Tensions

U.S. trade policies under the Trump administration have escalated tensions with key global players, particularly India, while indirectly encouraging closer economic cooperation between Russia and China. The imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian exports, coupled with an undisclosed "penalty" targeting India’s trade with Russia in defense and energy sectors, has intensified pressure on New Delhi to distance itself from Moscow [4][11]. This move, announced amid stalled trade negotiations, signals a broader strategy to reshape global trade dynamics in favor of U.S. economic interests [5][9].

The Russia-India-China (RIC) framework, long dormant since 2019, has gained renewed interest from Moscow and Beijing, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov calling for its revival and China expressing openness to deeper trilateral cooperation [1]. However, India has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing strategic autonomy and avoiding formal alignment with either Russia or China. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has stressed that any revival of RIC will occur only when “mutually convenient,” reflecting New Delhi’s reluctance to be drawn into anti-Western frameworks [1].

Trade linkages between the three countries remain significant but uneven. Russia and China have seen bilateral trade more than triple in the past decade, driven by energy and raw material exports from Russia and manufactured goods and technology from China [1]. Meanwhile, Russia-India trade has grown from a lower base, with Russia exporting fertilizers, oil, and precious metals to India, which in turn supplies medicines and textiles. Gravity-model estimates suggest Russia still has untapped export potential of 24% to China and 17% to India [1]. In a trade environment distorted by tariffs and sanctions, even modest gains in these corridors are seen as valuable. For instance, India has opted to purchase 20+ Russian Su-57 fighter jets instead of the American F-35, in part due to Trump’s 25% tariff on Indian goods [1].

The RIC mechanism offers each country distinct strategic advantages. For Russia, it provides a platform to maintain global relevance amid Western isolation. For China, it helps stabilize its neighborhood and counter India’s potential tilt toward the U.S. India, however, continues to resist being pigeonholed into a specific bloc, emphasizing its non-aligned stance and balancing relationships [1]. The U.S. tariffs have increased the stakes for India, but it has responded by engaging in dialogue with both Moscow and Beijing rather than committing to a definitive alignment [1].

While the U.S. seeks to leverage India as a counterweight to China, its aggressive trade policies may be inadvertently pushing Russia and China closer together. The Trump administration has also announced broader tariff hikes, with duties as high as 35% on trade partners including Canada, Brazil, and Southeast Asian nations, while offering temporary reprieves to countries like Mexico and South Korea [5][9]. These measures reflect a coordinated effort to reshape the global trade landscape, though their long-term impact remains uncertain.

India finds itself in a delicate balancing act. It has historically pursued self-reliance and non-alignment in foreign policy, which complicates any decisive shift away from its longstanding relationship with Russia. Analysts suggest that India’s trade policies are likely to remain pragmatic, prioritizing economic interests over ideological commitments [7][10]. As the U.S. tariff regime continues to evolve, global markets are recalibrating, with concerns over potential disruptions to trade flows and economic stability growing.

The RIC dialogue remains fluid. While Moscow and Beijing are actively pushing for its revival, Delhi has shown little enthusiasm for formal cooperation. The framework may regain relevance if it proves useful in addressing immediate geopolitical or economic challenges, but for now, India is allowing the process to unfold on its own terms [1]. As BRICS expands and becomes more complex, the RIC platform offers a more flexible and focused alternative for the three countries to engage. Whether it will become a meaningful force in global trade and diplomacy remains to be seen [1].

Sources:

[1] Is U.S. Tariff Heat Bringing Russia, India, China Back Together? (https://coinfomania.com/is-u-s-tariff-heat-bringing-russia-india-china-back-together/)

[4] Trump threatens India with 25% tariff — plus 'penalty' for ... (https://nypost.com/2025/07/30/us-news/trump-threatens-india-with-25-tariff-plus-penalty-for-buying-russian-energy/)

[5] Trump 2.0 tariff tracker (https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/07/31/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/)

[11] Trump's tariffs could deal a blow to India's growth and exports (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0j91p8w20vo)