Tariff Tremors or Trade Triumph? How Uncertainty Opens Investment Opportunities

As markets grapple with a renewed wave of trade tensions and a policy environment in flux, two perspectives—one from Wall Street and one from Main Street—are offering investors a cautiously optimistic lens on where opportunities may lie.

Goldman Sachs this week revised down its forecast for S&P 500 cash spending growth in 2025 to 5%, citing rising economic uncertainty and a cooling in earnings growth. "Every 100-point increase in policy uncertainty is associated with a roughly 10% reduction in cash spending," the firm’s analysts noted in a report released Tuesday. Key drivers of this downturn include weaker expectations for buybacks and a significant slowdown in cash-based M&A, which Goldman now sees contracting by 10%​.

Yet amid this caution, there are signs that volatility may be presenting savvy investors with a window of opportunity.

Watch: Ryan Payne who says uncertainty is an investors friend.

Ryan Payne, founder of Payne Capital Management, described the market’s recent gyrations as symptomatic of "a big rock thrown in the middle of a pond." He added, “Uncertainty is your friend when you know it’s going to happen. You have clarity. Well, markets don’t tend to settle down. They tend to settle up​."

This sentiment echoes Goldman’s own acknowledgment that not all segments of the market are pulling back. Notably, mega-cap tech firms—like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet—are doubling down on capital expenditures, particularly in AI infrastructure. Goldman estimates these "hyperscalers" will increase their capex by 36% this year, accounting for nearly a quarter of total S&P 500 capex​.

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Investors are watching closely to see whether recent signals of tariff de-escalation materialize into concrete trade agreements. “It sounds like now they’re willing to negotiate...going to look to possibly bring back some of those tariffs,” Payne said, pointing to recent market rallies as a sign that optimism is tentatively returning​.

However, he was quick to note that the economic backdrop remains tenuous. Supply chain impacts are still being felt—imports at the Port of Long Beach from China are down some 30%—and investors lack clarity on Beijing’s response to Washington’s overtures. “China can’t afford not to trade just as much as we can’t afford not to trade,” Payne warned​.

Goldman Sachs' strategists caution that without policy stabilization, companies may prioritize balance sheet health over spending. Corporate cash reserves are at their lowest levels since the Global Financial Crisis, and the firm sees the risk of recession at 45% over the next year​.

Still, for long-term investors, this environment may offer attractive entry points—particularly in tech and infrastructure plays that are less vulnerable to trade shocks. As Payne summed it up, “Markets trade off of certainty. And when the right moves start happening, that’s when you get that rally.”