U.S. Tariff Rulings and Market Volatility: A Strategic Play on Winners and Losers

The U.S. Supreme Court's impending decision on the legality of President Trump's IEEPA-based tariffs-expected in early 2026-has become a pivotal catalyst for market volatility. This ruling will not only test the boundaries of presidential authority over trade policy but also reshape corporate earnings, supply chains, and investor sentiment. For investors, the stakes are clear: identifying companies poised to benefit from a potential tariff reversal could unlock significant value in a post-ruling landscape.

The Legal Crossroads and Market Implications

The Court's scrutiny of IEEPA's applicability to tariffs has already triggered uncertainty. Lower courts, including the Court of International Trade and the Federal Circuit, have ruled that IEEPA does not authorize tariff impositions. If the Supreme Court affirms this, the Trump administration may pivot to alternative statutes like Section 301 or 232 of the Trade Act of 1974 to maintain high tariffs. However, such a shift would create short-term volatility, as companies and global suppliers scramble to adapt to new rules.

For importers, the ruling could trigger a complex refund process. Importers who paid IEEPA tariffs may seek reliquidation through U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), potentially recovering duties with interest. Yet, the Trump administration has signaled its intent to reinstate tariffs via other legal frameworks, suggesting that any relief may be temporary. This dynamic creates a dual challenge: immediate financial relief for affected companies and prolonged uncertainty about future trade policy.

High-Conviction Stocks: Winners in a Post-Tariff Reversal Scenario

Apple (AAPL): A $1.1 Billion Headwind Reversed

Apple's exposure to IEEPA tariffs is acute. In Q4 2025, the company reported a $1.1 billion cost from tariffs, with projections of $1.4 billion in Q1 2026. The 20% tariff on Chinese imports-applied to a portion of Apple's product lines-has directly pressured margins. Analysts estimate that if tariffs are reversed, Apple could see a $0.41 per share earnings boost (4.9%) if it adjusts pricing, or a $0.11 per share improvement (1.2%) if it absorbs costs.

A ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs would not only reduce Apple's operational costs but also stabilize its supply chain. The company's reliance on Chinese manufacturing for critical components makes it a prime beneficiary of reduced trade friction. Investors should monitor Apple's Q1 2026 earnings for signs of margin expansion and pricing flexibility.

General Motors (GM): A $4.5 Billion Lifeline

General Motors has faced a $1.1 billion tariff burden in Q3 2025, with total annual exposure estimated at $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion. While GM's vehicle tariffs are primarily under Section 232, its components-such as steel and aluminum-are heavily impacted by IEEPA tariffs. A refund of these duties would directly improve GM's cash flow and reduce production costs.

The automaker's strategic pivot to electric vehicles (EVs) also hinges on stable supply chains. Tariff-related disruptions have already delayed component sourcing for EVs. A post-ruling environment with reduced trade barriers could accelerate GM's transition to EVs, enhancing long-term profitability.

United Parcel Service (UPS): Trade Volume Recovery

UPS's China-to-U.S. trade lane-a critical revenue driver- saw a 35% drop in daily volume in May and June 2025, attributed to tariff-driven shifts in shipping patterns. A reversal of IEEPA tariffs could restore trade flows, particularly as companies front-load imports before potential new tariffs under Section 301.

UPS's CEO has publicly criticized tariffs as detrimental to trade efficiency. With its logistics network optimized for cross-border commerce, UPS stands to gain from reduced trade friction. Investors should watch for improved volume metrics in Q1 2026, signaling a rebound in demand for its services.

Strategic Considerations for Investors

While the Supreme Court's ruling remains pending, proactive steps can mitigate risk. Companies like Apple, GM, and UPS have already taken measures to preserve refund rights, including filing protests and Post-Summary Corrections (PSCs) with CBP. Investors should prioritize firms with robust compliance frameworks and diversified supply chains, as these will navigate post-ruling volatility more effectively.

However, the Trump administration's intent to reinstate tariffs via alternative statutes means that relief may be short-lived. Investors must balance near-term gains with long-term exposure to cyclical trade policy shifts. For now, Apple, GM, and UPS represent high-conviction plays in a market poised for a seismic reset.

Conclusion

The Supreme Court's decision on IEEPA tariffs will redefine the trade landscape, with immediate implications for corporate earnings and supply chains. For investors, the key lies in identifying companies best positioned to capitalize on tariff reversals while mitigating exposure to future policy swings. Apple, General Motors, and UPS exemplify this strategic opportunity, offering a compelling case for long-term value creation in a post-ruling world.