U.S. Tariff Hike Triggers Bitcoin Rangebound Trading

On Friday, the U.S. President announced an increase in tariffs on imported aluminum and steel from 25% to 50%, effective June 4. This move triggered a broad-based risk-off sentiment across global markets, with Bitcoin trading in the range of $103,000-$106,000 and little excitement in the broader crypto market. Notably, BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) experienced an outflow of $430 million, ending a prolonged inflows streak.

According to Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital, tariff tensions are likely to dominate the macro narrative through June, with meaningful policy deadlines only kicking in from July 8. In the absence of fresh catalysts, Bitcoin could remain rangebound, with the $100,000 and $110,000 levels critical to watch given their status as strikes with the highest month-end open interest.

ETFs are becoming increasingly important to the market. Data shows that the cumulative trading volume in the 11 spot BTC ETFs listed in the U.S. is now well over 40% of the spot volume. This data supports the "Bitcoin ETFs are the new marginal buyer" hypothesis.

On-chain data showed a drop in momentum buyers alongside a sharp rise in profit takers last week. This trend often shows near local tops, as traders begin locking in gains instead of building exposure.

Japan’s Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 1,088 BTC, and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk announced a new XChat with Bitcoin-like encryption. Binance's founder CZ suggested that now might be a good time to develop a dark pool-style perpetual-focused decentralized exchange, noting that real-time order visibility can lead to MEV attacks and malicious liquidations.

In traditional markets, gold looked to break out of its recent consolidation, hinting at the next leg higher as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley forecast continued dollar weakness. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls release will be closely watched for signs of labor market weakness.

In other news, Japan’s Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 1,088 BTC, and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk announced a new XChat with Bitcoin-like encryption. Binance's founder CZ suggested that now might be a good time to develop a dark pool-style perpetual-focused decentralized exchange, noting that real-time order visibility can lead to MEV attacks and malicious liquidations.

In traditional markets, gold looked to break out of its recent consolidation, hinting at the next leg higher as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley forecast continued dollar weakness. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls release will be closely watched for signs of labor market weakness.