Target Stock Surges 4.75% to $106.54 on Bullish Technical Breakout

Target (TGT) concluded the latest session with a notable 4.75% gain, closing at $106.54 on robust volume, which may signal renewed bullish momentum. The following technical analysis evaluates this move within the context of key indicators.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session formed a robust bullish candle with a wide range ($102.45–$106.91), closing near the high, indicating strong buying pressure after a brief consolidation between $101–$104. This pattern breached the immediate resistance at $105–$106, previously established in early July. Key support remains near $100–$101, validated by multiple tests including the $100.36 low on July 16. A higher low formation above this zone suggests underlying strength, while sustained closes above $106 could target $110–$112.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term moving averages (50-day and 100-day) have flattened recently, reflecting reduced downward momentum after a prolonged decline. The 50-day MA near $102 provided dynamic support during the July consolidation. However, the 200-day MA (currently near $112) persists in a downtrend, underscoring longer-term bearish resistance. A bullish crossover of the 50-day above the 100-day MA would signal improving intermediate momentum, though such a development requires further price confirmation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has shifted positively, with the MACD line approaching a bullish crossover above its signal line, suggesting budding upward momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator exited oversold territory (<30) in late June and now holds near 65–70. While KDJ’s ascent aligns with price strength, proximity to overbought (>80) territory warrants caution for near-term exhaustion. No bearish divergence is apparent, supporting the current recovery thesis.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the 4.75% surge, with price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band (near $105), a sign of strong directional momentum. Prior band contraction in mid-July had foreshadowed this volatility spike. Sustained closes above the upper band are rare; a consolidation or mild pullback toward the 20-day SMA (near $103) would be typical to reset extremes while preserving the uptrend.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 44% on the breakout session to 6.4 million shares, validating the bullish price move. This follows above-average volume during the July 1 rally (9.9 million shares), reinforcing $100–$102 as a high-conviction support zone. The volume profile suggests accumulation near these levels, enhancing the sustainability of the breakout if accompanied by ongoing volume support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has jumped to approximately 68, nearing overbought territory (>70) for the first time since April. This reflects accelerating upside momentum but also implies heightened susceptibility to short-term pullbacks. While RSI’s trend reversal from oversold (<30) in June bolsters the recovery case, its current elevation suggests prudence near $106–$107 resistance. A pause or minor retracement would allow healthier consolidation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant downtrend from the August 2024 high of $167.40 to the June 2025 low of $94.40, the 23.6% retracement level sits at $111.60, aligning with the 200-day MA near $112 and forming a critical confluence resistance zone. The recent close at $106.54 remains below this threshold, leaving room for further upside. Key support resides at the 38.2% retracement of the recent upswing (from $94.40 to $106.91), near $101.30—confluent with the July 16 low and 50-day MA.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Notable confluence exists between volume-supported price action, moving average support, and momentum indicators, reinforcing the significance of the $100–$102 support and $111–$112 resistance. A potential divergence may emerge if RSI enters overbought territory without corresponding price gains above $111. However, current indicator alignment (e.g., MACD, KDJ, and volume) collectively suggests the breakout may extend toward $111–$112, though overbought RSI and Bollinger Band extensions increase near-term consolidation probability. Traders should monitor $106 as a pivotal level; sustained holds above it could invalidate immediate bearish reversals.