Target Stock Plunges 3.95% Amid Bearish Technical Signals And High Volume Selling

Target's stock (TGT) declined significantly in the most recent session, closing at $95.37, representing a 3.95% drop on volume of approximately 7.29 million shares. This follows a period of heightened volatility and an established longer-term downtrend evident throughout the provided historical data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action exhibits bearish patterns. The June 13th session formed a long red candle closing near its low after testing resistance near $99.25, confirming overhead supply. This follows a failed attempt to sustain a rally above the $100 psychological level on June 10th, leaving a bearish 'shooting star' candlestick pattern. Key resistance is now firmly established around $99-$100, stemming from the June 12th high and the failed breakout attempt. Support resides near the recent low of $94.775, with more significant historical support seen around $90-$92 (April 2025 levels). A confirmed break below $94.775 could signal further downside.
Moving Average Theory
The moving averages present a strong bearish alignment. The shorter-term 50-day MA is positioned firmly below the longer-term 100-day and 200-day MAs, signaling a well-established downtrend across timeframes. Current price ($95.37) trades below all three key MAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. Each MA (especially the 50-day and 100-day) is acting as dynamic resistance on any bounce attempts. The consistent order (price < 50DMA < 100DMA < 200DMA) confirms a technically negative trend structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Both momentum oscillators signal bearish momentum and potential continuation. The MACD line remains below its signal line and is hovering in negative territory, showing no signs of bullish convergence despite recent price volatility. This suggests downward momentum persists. Similarly, the KDJ indicator, specifically the K and D lines, are oscillating near oversold levels but show little inclination for a bullish crossover. While nominally oversold, neither oscillator exhibits strong bullish divergence suggesting an imminent reversal; instead, they favor further downside or consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands have shown recent expansion, particularly evident on the sharp down days like June 13th. This expansion confirms the pickup in bearish volatility. Price is currently trading near the lower band, indicating downward pressure is dominant. The bands were contracting slightly before this move, hinting at the volatility buildup. A sustained position near or below the lower band suggests potential continuation of the downtrend. A move back towards the middle band (approximately the 20-period MA) would be the first sign of stabilization but may face resistance.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis validates the bearish price action. The significant decline on June 13th occurred on notably higher volume (7.29 million shares) compared to the preceding session (5.32 million), confirming strong selling pressure. This follows the pattern observed during major downturns like the November 21, 2024, plunge, which occurred on extremely high volume (over 64 million shares). Conversely, recent bounce attempts (e.g., June 6th, 10th, 12th) generally occurred on lower or average volume, suggesting weak buying conviction and unsustainable rallies. The high-volume decline on June 13th reinforces the likelihood of further downside.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI is currently near 35 (approaching oversold territory, but not yet below 30). More critically, a bearish divergence emerged in late May. Despite Target's price making marginal new highs around $99.49 on June 12th, the RSI formed a lower high, failing to confirm the price strength – a classic warning sign of weakening momentum that preceded the recent sharp drop. While the RSI is nearing oversold, its current trajectory and the recent bearish divergence suggest the indicator may remain suppressed or experience only minor rebounds within the downtrend. A true oversold condition (<30) combined with bullish divergence would be needed for a stronger reversal signal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant swing high near $105.77 (April 2, 2025) and the major low near $88.76 (April 8, 2025) identifies key retracement levels. The most recent breakdown occurred after price failed to sustain above the 61.8% retracement level (approx. $99.35). This rejection near a critical Fibonacci level adds weight to the resistance zone around $99-$100. Downside targets include the 38.2% retracement level near $95.50 (roughly aligning with the June 13th close) and the critical 23.6% level near $92.00. Significant historical support also resides near $90-$92, creating a confluence zone for potential buyers. A breach below $90 would open the door to retesting the $88.76 low.
Confluence and Conclusion
Multiple indicators converge to depict a bearish picture for Target. The downtrend is confirmed by the bearish moving average alignment, MACD negativity, and price rejection at major Fibonacci resistance ($99-$100) accompanied by bearish candlesticks. Momentum (MACD, KDJ) supports further downside. Recent high-volume selling reinforces this weakness. While approaching significant support near $92-$90 (Fibonacci, historical price), the lack of strong bullish divergences or oversold reversals in key oscillators suggests the path of least resistance remains down or towards consolidation within the downtrend. Key resistance is defined near $99-$100, with crucial support near $92 and then $90. Monitoring price action and volume near these support levels is essential, but confirmation from multiple indicators (e.g., RSI divergence, MACD crossover) would be required to signal a higher probability reversal.