Target Shares Slide 4.01% Amid Bearish Technical Breakdown

Target (TGT) shares declined 4.01% in the most recent session, closing at $85.53. This marks the second consecutive day of losses, resulting in a cumulative 5.37% drop over this period, signaling heightened bearish pressure near-term.
Candlestick Theory
The latest session formed a decisive bearish candle, closing near its low ($85.53 vs. low $85.36), reflecting persistent selling. Prior resistance near $90-$91 is evident from multiple failed breakouts (e.g., 2025-10-08, 2025-10-09). Key support emerges at $85.36, the recent low. A close below this level would confirm bearish continuation. Resistance remains firm around $89.23-$90.38, aligning with recent highs and the psychological $90 threshold.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approx. $89.50) crossed below the 100-day MA (approx. $92.20) in late September, confirming a bearish medium-term shift. The 200-day MA (approx. $94.50) now acts as major overhead resistance. Price sits well below all key MAs ($89-$94 range), confirming a robust downtrend. A sustained break below $85 may accelerate selling, while recovery faces layered resistance at the 50-day and 100-day MAs.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram showing no convergence, suggesting sustained bearish momentum. KDJ shows the %K line near oversold levels (around 25), but has not yet crossed above %D – indicating no confirmed reversal signal. Both oscillators agree on bearish control, though potential oversold conditions warrant monitoring for exhaustion signals.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted significantly in late September, preceding the recent volatility expansion and breakdown below $90. Price currently trades near the lower band ($84.50-85.00), reflecting oversold conditions. A sustained move below the lower band may signal capitulation, while a rebound toward the middle band (near $88.50) could offer a shorting opportunity. Bandwidth expansion supports continued directional momentum.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent declines (2025-10-09, 2025-10-10) occurred on elevated volume (7.19M and 13.77M shares), validating the bearish move. Prior recovery attempts (e.g., 2025-10-06) lacked significant volume conviction. This divergence suggests weak demand at higher prices and reinforces the breakdown's significance. Sustained high volume on further dips would signal capitulation, while low-volume rebounds likely lack durability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI (14-period) is currently near 37, approaching but not yet in oversold territory (<30). This reflects downside momentum but suggests room for further selling before exhaustion. Notably, RSI failed to surpass 55 during recent rallies, confirming bearish momentum. Confluence with price action is critical; an oversold RSI alone may not signal a reversal without supporting price confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the significant trough at $78.80 (approx. 2025-04-23 low) to the peak of $130.69 (approx. 2025-02-20 high):
- Key retracement levels: 38.2% ($111.50), 50% ($104.75), 61.8% ($98.00).
Price decisively breached the 61.8% level ($98) in late August and has since cascaded lower. The current price sits below the 78.6% retracement ($88.50), suggesting a potential test of the 100% extension ($78.80) – the prior major low. Minor structural support near $84.50 (July 2025 swing low) aligns closely with the recent $85.36 low.
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Key Confluences:
- $85.36 support (candlestick low) aligns with the July 2025 swing low ($84.50) and Bollinger lower band ($84.50-85), making this a critical zone. A breach opens the path to $78.80.
- Resistance near $88.50-$89.00 converges with the 78.6% Fibonacci level, the 50-day MA, and the mid-Bollinger Band.
- Volume confirmation validates breakdowns, while lack thereof challenges rallies.
Notable Divergence:
Despite price nearing multi-month lows, RSI (37) is not yet oversold, diverging mildly from typical exhaustion signals. This may reflect sustained momentum selling or limit near-term bounce potential. MACD/KDJ alignment supports this, showing no bullish crossover despite oversold KDJ conditions.
Conclusion
Target's technical structure is decisively bearish. The confluence of resistance around $88.50-$89.50 makes recovery challenging near-term. Critical support at $85.36-$84.50 must hold to prevent a test of major support near $78.80. While oversold intraday readings (KDJ, lower Bollinger Band) may trigger technical rebounds, sustained recovery requires reclaiming $90 on high volume – lacking evidence currently. Continued vigilance on volume dynamics at key support/resistance is essential.