Target Plunges 6.33% to 98.69 as Death Cross Confirms Bearish Trend

Candlestick Theory
Target's latest session formed a long-legged doji candle with a 6.33% decline, closing at 98.69 after trading between 94.15–99.56. This pattern—characterized by an extended lower wick and a small real body—reflects intense intraday selling pressure followed by partial recovery. Prior candles showed weakening momentum: a small bullish candle on August 19 (104.44–107.265) failed to sustain gains, while the August 20 selloff confirmed resistance near 106.43 (July 28 high). Key support now resides at the August 20 low of 94.15, closely aligning with the March–April 2025 trough near 92. Resistance is firm at the 104–107 zone (August 11–19 consolidation).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately 101.2), 100-day SMA (~98.5), and 200-day SMA (~118.7) all slope downward, confirming a long-term bearish trend. The August 20 close at 98.69 sits below all three averages, with the 50-day decisively crossing under the 200-day in late July (a "death cross"). The 50/100-day SMAs are converging near 100, suggesting this area may act as dynamic resistance. Sustained trading below the 100-day SMA reinforces bearish control, with no imminent trend reversal signal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12/26/9) exhibits a bearish configuration: the histogram remains negative, and the signal line persists above the MACD line, indicating sustained downward momentum. The KDJ oscillator (9/3) shows %K (31) and %D (38) below 50 but not yet oversold, with no bullish crossover in sight. Recent divergence occurred in early August when price marginally recovered to 106.43 (July 28) while MACD failed to breach zero—a sign of latent weakness now materialized. KDJ’s current neutral position offers no contrarian buy signal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the August 20 selloff, with the price closing near the lower band (approximately 92.5). The 20-day Bollinger Band width widened by 15% versus the prior week, confirming elevated bearish momentum. The breach below the 20-day SMA (middle band) on August 15 preceded the breakdown, and price now trades in the lower Bollinger quartile. A close below the lower band (92.5) would likely accelerate selling, while mean-reversion bounces face resistance at the middle band (101.5).
Volume-Price Relationship
August 20’s plunge occurred on 33.1 million shares—triple the 20-day average volume—validating bearish conviction. This distribution climax follows tepid volume during August’s attempted recovery (5–8 million shares), confirming weak accumulation. Notable negative volume divergence appeared on August 12–13 when prices tested 107 resistance: volume shrank 30% despite proximity to key technical levels. Current high-volume breakdown suggests continuation risk, with support at 94.15 critical for stemming panic selling.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (27.6) entered oversold territory (<30) on August 20, signaling short-term exhaustion. This reading coincides with June 2023 and April 2025 extremes that preceded minor bounces. However, RSI alone is an unreliable reversal indicator in strong trends—similar oversold signals in late June 2025 saw only fleeting stabilization before declines resumed. Confluence with other indicators (e.g., volume spike, Fibonacci resistance) reduces the predictive power of this RSI extreme.
Fibonacci Retracement
The July 28 high (106.43) precisely tested the 23.6% retracement (106.24) of the primary downtrend from 167.4 (August 21, 2024) to 87.35 (April 8, 2025). This level has now reverted to resistance. The subsequent decline breaches the 38.2% micro-retracement (102.2) of the April–July rally. Next key supports are the 78.6% primary retracement at 95.0 (87.35 + 0.21437.05) and the April low of 87.35. Absent recovery above 106.24, bearish momentum may extend toward the 0% level.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence at 106–107 resistance (Fibonacci 23.6%, July/August highs, 100-day SMA) amplified the August 20 breakdown. Bearish volume confirmation and moving average alignment strengthen the downtrend thesis. Divergence emerged via oversold RSI against otherwise negative momentum signals, but historical context (June/April parallels) suggests this may only precede tactical pauses. MACD/price divergence in early August provided an accurate warning of trend resumption. Near-term bias remains downward barring recovery above 102 (50-day SMA and Bollinger mid-band).