Target Earnings: What Investors Need to Know Before the Bell

Target is set to report its third-quarter earnings before the opening bell, and investors are eagerly awaiting the results. The retail giant has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent quarters, with comparable sales growth fluctuating and discretionary sales showing signs of improvement. As Target prepares to unveil its latest financial performance, here's what investors need to know.

First, let's take a look at the trajectory of Target's comparable sales growth over the past year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company reported a 3.7% decline in comparable sales. However, in the second quarter, Target rebounded with a 2.0% increase in comparable sales. This trend suggests a potential return to growth in the upcoming earnings report, aligning with the Company's guidance for a 0 to 2 percent increase in its comparable sales.



Target's discretionary sales, particularly in apparel and beauty categories, have shown significant improvement in recent quarters. In the first quarter of 2024, apparel sales improved by nearly 4 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. This trend continued in the second quarter, with apparel comparable sales growing more than 3 percent. Similarly, beauty sales have remained strong, with the category delivering traffic growth in both the first and second quarters. This consistent performance in discretionary categories indicates a shift in consumer spending behavior, potentially driven by a more stable economic environment and Target's focus on value and newness.



Target's same-day services, such as Drive Up and Target Circle 360™, have been a significant driver of the company's growth. In the second quarter of 2024, these services saw double-digit growth, led by low teens growth in Drive Up and Target Circle 360™ same-day delivery. This trend is expected to continue, as consumers increasingly value convenience and flexibility in their shopping experiences. As Target continues to invest in and expand its same-day services, they are likely to remain a key growth engine for the company.



Target's gross margin rate and SG&A expense rate have shown significant improvements over time. In Q2 2024, the gross margin rate was 28.9%, up from 27.0% in 2023, driven by cost improvements and favorable category mix. Meanwhile, the SG&A expense rate was 21.2%, slightly higher than the 20.9% in 2023, reflecting increased costs and investments in pay and benefits. As Target reports its Q3 2024 earnings, investors should expect continued focus on cost management and strategic investments to maintain profitability and growth.



Analysts' earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Target have increased since the previous quarter. The average EPS estimate for the third quarter is $2.30, up from $2.10 in the second quarter. This represents a 9.5% increase in EPS estimates. The key drivers behind the evolution of analysts' expectations for Target's earnings include the company's strategic focus on value and its successful execution. In Q2 2024, Target reported a 2% increase in comparable sales, with strong growth in digital sales and same-day services. The company also delivered a 160 basis point increase in operating income margin rate, reflecting improved gross margin and disciplined cost management.



Analysts expect Target to report a revenue bump of nearly 2% to $25.89 billion in the third quarter, up from $25.40 billion the same time last year. This projection represents a significant improvement from the previous quarter's 3.7% decline in comparable sales. The expected growth is driven by Target's focus on value and efforts to win back customers, as well as a return to growth in discretionary categories like apparel and beauty.



In conclusion, investors should be prepared for a potential return to growth in Target's comparable sales, driven by improving discretionary sales and strong same-day services. The company's focus on value and strategic investments have contributed to a positive outlook from analysts, with EPS estimates and revenue growth projections on the rise. As Target reports its third-quarter earnings, investors should closely monitor the company's performance in these key areas to gauge its long-term prospects.